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Perhaps you did not see it, or maybe you did, but about a week ago I posted a Delta chart for the SP. I don't think one could look at the chart and say that there is no correlation or that one really needs to make a stretch in order to notice a correlation.
No one system is 100% stand alone. Confirming indicators are always beneficial. Whether Delta fits one's trading style and comfort level is another story...as with any trading methodology. There are obviously numerous ways to skin this cat we call the markets and not everyone is adept or as knowledable on how to best use specific indicators.
But if anyone believes they can just choose any day of the week, plus or minus a day or 2 to place a trade...be my guest and bet the house.
Also, with Delta, inversions can only happen at specific times within various cycles. Inversions are also accounted for in other cycle work outside of Delta. So it appears to be a phenomenon exposed by cycle work and a function of cycles.
I used to be in communication with an excellent trader (JD) who primarily used cycles. In his work which was proprietary, cycles inverted also.
In a message dated Wed, 23 May 2001 3:21:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, "d graham" <dtgraham@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
<< Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
"tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for example
my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances are
pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point - then
it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic) nastiness
was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually thought
my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
point about random numbers working over an extended period of time - where
is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every wednesday
+/- 2 days
dave
----- Original Message -----
From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
> > So just for fun, I
> > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> > impressive!
>
> Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little. The
> key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that focuses
> it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events as
> significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
>
> New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
>
> 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> -------------------
> 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
>
> Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
>
> Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to be
> careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
>
> Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive. System
> traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your favorite
> system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that you
> find all those times it didn't work as expected.
>
> --
> Dennis
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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>
>
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