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RT,
I was reviewing some of the forecasts that I have kept from various market
related lists. First, please see Gary's below that was posted to RT on March
4. Then please see the post I sent to
the gannghost list, below. What is not obvious from my post, without some
further calculations, is that if you take the stated harmonic of 13.34 times
the 1932 low close of the DJIA, 41.22, you get 549.87 for the Naz. The
point is that the bottom line of both post, though derived from totally
different methods, is that if the Nazdaq follows the 1929 bubble - crash
model, that after this rally, it will eventually go to the 550 area. I
arrived at 549.87 and Gary arrived at 550. I find it amazing that we both
came to the same number If this scenario holds, look for 2650 - 2700, 3370,
or 3792- 3922 to stop the Naz Comp on the upside before plunging to 550. The
former of the last two numbers is a .618 retracement of the 2000 - 2001
down move and the latter is 13.34 times the high for the DJIA for the spring
1930 rebound rally. By the way, I just checked, thinking my theory was
going to fall apart when I checked the low price at the bottom of the crash
in 1929 with a low price of 198.69. However, please note that the Naz Comp
bottomed at 1625 which is 8.1785 times the DJIA 1929 low. 8.1785 is .613 of
13.34. In other words, the Fibonacci harmonics of these numbers is still
holding together despite the fact that I posted this several week ahead of
the April low and didn't know what the low price would be.
Cheers,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 04, 2001 2:44 AM
Subject: [RT] NDX long term trend lines
>
> The attached chart shows a plot of the NDX lows from late 1985 until
> 3/2/2001 with three trend lines: (1) a trend line connecting the 1987
> and 1991 lows, (2) a trend line based on the linear regression of
> all the lows recorded in the 1991-1995 time frame, and (3) a
> trend line connecting the 1996, 1997, and 1998 lows.
>
> As shown, NDX at present has broken the 1996,7,8 trend line, or
> at best is testing that trendline. If NDX trades lower from
> here, it has technically broken the trend established by the
> steep rally beginning in 1996. At that point, we need to look
> at the next lower trendline which projects an ultimate low in
> the 1300 range (about -30% below current levels) in the mid-2002
> time frame. If that level were not to hold then we turn to the
> trend line established by the 1987 and 1991 lows, or about 550
> in the 2004 time frame (about -70% below current levels). Such
> a severe decline would erase the gains of the previous 9 years,
> and yet, would still be consistent with a longer term price
> appreciation of about 9% per year on a pure price basis (or
> close to 5% or 6% real return, after adjusting for inflation).
>
----- Original Message -----
From: Norman
To: gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 6:39 PM
Subject: [astrofinance] TIME & PRICE
Dear W.D. Gann,
I was experimenting on my calculator today with some time and price
concepts. I was thinking that there seem to be some parallels between the
1929 - 1930 DJIA and the 2000 - 2001 NAZ Comp, which would fit with my
outlook for the next six months. So, I thought, maybe there is a
mathematical relationship between the DJIA high at 386 and the COMPAQ high
at 5150?
The ratio is 13.34. Then I wondered if there was any significance to that
number as a harmonic?
So, I took 360 and divided it by 13.34 and found that it was very close to
the 27th harmonic of 360 degrees. So, I asked, what is the significance of
the 27th harmonic? Gee, I wonder if there is any relationship between 27
and the time of the two peaks which is approximately 70.5 years.
70.5 divided by 27 = 2.6111 which I think is a really neat Fibonacci ratio.
This little revelation serves to confirm that the NAZ is following a 1929
type scenario with an initial crash and then a big spring rally ala 1930.
If this turns out to be the correct scenario, after the first half of this
year, you don't want to own any NAZ stocks and a further decimation is
indicated. The good news is that within a few weeks, there should the
start of a very good rally, lasting several months, that will afford one the
opportunity to exit at good prices and prepare for a further decline in the
latter part of this year.
How's it going where you are?
Respectfully,
Norman Winski
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