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> The market will do whatever it has to do to make most of the people mostly
> wrong most of the times. These sentiment figures would indicate a bearish
> mode for the market.
I think the sentiment figures are even easier than that to understand.
There is no need to assume that most of the people being surveyed are
wrong or stupid or losers - the typical spin put on the sentiment
numbers. Rather they are just talking their books. If they are bullish,
they are probably already net long. They certainly won't tell you what
they are going to do before they do it. If everybody is already long,
there is nobody left to buy more, so the only way the market can move is
down. That makes sentiment a perfectly logical contrary indicator.
Of course, the devil, like in any survey, is in who you ask and how you
ask it. There are lots of big players and you can't ask them all, even
if you make the *big* assumption that they would give you an honest
answer. :-)
--
Dennis
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