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I'd like to add something to the distinctions in the casinos. The reason
that it's the Blackjack players that get banned as oppposed to the other
forms of popular gambling players, is that Blackjack is beatable, because it
is based on dependent trial, i.e., the previous cards played in the current
deck(s) directly bear on this deal,,and we can calculate the current deal in
terms of current odds/probability and bet based on that. This is really a
combination of odds(of the relationship of cards played to what is left to
play) and based on computer models - what's the likelihood(probability) of
the dealer busting. The other popular games are independent trial, i.e,
each roll of the dice is fresh. so the odds are always the same. The
probability related to craps would be related to chance. And that exists in
all forms of risk.
In the markets, IMHO, we are looking to do the same thing whether it be
EWT, cycles, etc. The distinction between playing Blackjack and trading is
we are FORCED to respond(excluding the notion that a casino will let you sit
there and pass, until the count is right to bet). Having never been a floor
trader, I wouldn't know, but, it seems that and other forms of scalping best
match up with what it's like to count cards playing Blackjack in LasVegas.
Of course the "tell" factor from poker, likely is a key for certain floor
traders, I would imagine. Of course, if you're an employee, there's a
built-in FORCE factor. So I don't go off on a tangent, I'm saying it's an
issue of how much time you have to think(or what may be construed as
thought, which in reality sometimes isn't) and how you make decisions.
IMHO, being a Blackjack TRADER is the surest way to success, both
financially and psychologically. It doesn't matter what method is used as
long as it's a method you BELIEVE in. The trick of course is to apply that
mentality when one is NOT FORCED.
Since the psychology of trading is upside down to how we feel(adding a
little brainwashing), the odds of succeeding for most people are far less
than 50%.
But, as humans, some of us have different motivations. So, we need to
develop "stuff" to protect ourselves from ourselves while testing ourselves
at the same time, and hopefully fulfillling some needs and desires along the
way. I think Yogi said it best - "It's 90% mental, and the other half is
physical". Happy Trading, Tim P.S.
He's a double Taurus by the way for the astrologers out there. So you know
Yogi's "humor".
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, May 05, 2001 1:06 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] WHY...Trading Profession?
> I have followed this thread and feel that there has been a lot of good
advice
> given and some that is erroneous, IMHO. To go to a casino is not a gamble
if
> you are knowledgeable, it is a profession. There is a difference between
odds
> and probability. Each time you roll the dice the odds are exactly the
same for
> each combination, but after each roll of the dice the probability of a
given
> number to come up changes. Is playing blackjack a gamble or a profession?
If
> the edge was with the house, then why have they banned professional
blackjack
> players. There are those that trade stock and futures based upon
fundamentals
> and others that use technical analysis. Both are correct if the party
using
> them is profitable. Neither is correct if you are losing money. Every
system
> has an optimum point of entry and one for exit. If it doesn't, it should
have.
> The system I have gives a specific entry price, 3 different exit prices
and a
> specific stop. Others use overbought, oversold, some use the relationship
of
> various planets, some use moving averages and on and on and on. It is up
to the
> party that wants to become a trader to find that system which suits his
> personality the best. As for day trading, technical analysis seems to be
the
> most useful as fundamentals don't change every five minutes. As for the
hours
> to trade. A floor trader should make his biggest profits during the first
and
> last half hours of the trading day. Therefor an upstairs trader should
trade
> the balance of the day unless liquidating an existing position and leave
those
> two time periods to others. Trend is a tricky question. I have stated
this
> many times. It is the trader that creates the trend when he selects the
time
> frame that he is going to trade and the cycle upon which the trade is
based.
> These are usually determined by risk, money management, volatility and
timing.
> There are many different ways to determine value areas. One that is used
in many
> instances for futures is called the bond numbers. These are derived from
the
> previous days high, low and close. This system works to offer support and
> resistance lines that are based upon Yesterdays range and close. There is
a
> system which was developed by J.Peter Steidlmayer that also gives a
charted
> update of value areas based upon the trades at various prices. It has been
very
> successful for him, but I didn't find anyone else that could use the
system with
> a great deal of success. I used it for a while with a moderate degree of
> success, but it wasn't what I was looking for as an end product. The
questions
> you ask are good, but the answers will vary for each individual trader.
It is
> up to the individual to seek out what suits him/her. to filter through
the
> available information and find what suits there purported trading style.
I wish
> you luck on your quest. Ira
>
> BobR wrote:
>
> > Ridicule has its place and no offense is taken, I have received valuable
> > insights from it in the past. Let me rephrase the question disregarding
the
> > notion of trend or lack of in assuming an entry. Specifically for those
who
> > daytrade futures, what setups and triggers have you found to make
successful
> > entries early in the day, i.e. those that led to permit a profitable
exit.
> > Candlesticks were mentioned as one. But what "filters" do you look for
to
> > enable a trade and what do you look for to abort a setup?
> >
>
>
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>
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