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Giving credit where credit is due, I think this originally showed up in a
commentary by Goran on TradingMarkets.com. Goran's last name escapes me,
but, there can't be that many of them. He writes an irreverant and
entertaining commentary nightly that has generally been on the mark. If you
haven't seen it, TradingMarkets.com offers a free trial.
No affiliation. Just a satisfied customer.
Dan
>From: SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>To: REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: [RT] re:Ms. Cohen's track record for the past year
>Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 13:42:33 EST
>
>
> Date: Sat Mar 10 2001 03:06
> Gold Coaster (From Mr Lonely, banished to Kitco's outer Siberia ... Ms
>Cohen's
> dismal record) ID#428141:
> Copyright © 2000 Gold Coaster/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
> I found an interesting post on a message board thread by a Mark L. that
> summarized Ms. Cohen's track record for the past year:
>
> - On April 6th, she recommended her SUPER SEVEN stocks for the
>long-term:
> CSCO, DELL, EMC, FDC, ORCL, PMCS, TER. As of yesterday's close, that
>portfolio
> is down 46.2%. Long-term is right, because that portfolio needs to go up
> almost 100% to get back to where she recommended them.
>
> - October 3rd, she recommended BEAS, CSCO, EMC, JNPR, NTAP and ORCL.
>That
> portfolio is down 60.2%. Oye vey.
>
> - November 27th, she recommended CSCO ( she hadn't had enough ) , DOX,
>EMC
>(
> she still hadn't had enough ) , GLW, ITWO, SLR, SUNW, and VRTS. As of
> yesterday's close, that portfolio is down 39.63%.
>
> Now, Ms. Cohen is trying to convince us to buy once again as she is
>increasing
> her exposure to equities from 65% to 70%. Hmm... how does the old saying
> go?... "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me," I
>believe.
>
> Very interesting record indeed, wouldn't you agree? Amazing that she
>still
> gets television air time with such a dismal record. Fascinating still,
>is
>the
> fact that Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch could so blatantly front-run
>Abby's
> premarket call this morning which caused an enormous gap up in all
>indexes.
> When a layperson tries to front-run, they end up in handcuffs and the
>judicial
> system makes 'an example' out of them. However, it is perfectly fine for
>the
> brokerage houses to do the exact same thing whenever they have the
>opportunity
> to. Isn't it fascinating that the federal government wants to control
> virtually every aspect of how we act, work, love, and spend our time in
> private, yet the Wayne Angells and Abby Cohens of the world can commit
>these
> acts of fraud without lifting a regulative eyebrow?
>
> In fact, various brokerage houses came out today with lists of stocks we
> should "BUY NOW." They are telling us we should be buying equities right
>now
> because the economic environment will only get better with the Federal
>Reserve
> in a rate easing mode and a potential tax cut later this year. Let's
>just
>say
> I feel a little differently.
>
> Let there be no doubt here, the Titanic is going down but the band is
>playing
> as loud as it possibly can.
>
> All week long we have heard portfolio managers and stock gurus tell us
>how
> "value is back in vogue" and how you had to buy "old economy" stocks
>here.
> However, they failed to specify which sectors they considered to be
>values.
> Let's see, can't be the healthcare sector because that is trading at
> historically high multiples... can't be the retail patch because those
>are
> trading at ridiculously high multiples as well. In fact, you cannot find
>such
> a sector because such a sector doesn't exist. As I stated yesterday, the
>Dow
> index and the various momentum sectors which have been created within
>the
>Dow
> are now experiencing the same parabolic stock moves and stretched
>valuations
> we witnessed in the technology sector when the Nasdaq made its blow-off
>move
> to 5100. This time, however, noone is warning us of the danger that
> potentially lies ahead. Rather, we are being told that the consumer will
> continue to spend and drive this economy out of this listless period. Is
>that
> so?
>
> What probably excaped the headlines late in the day as pure euphoria
>spread
> throughout the NYSE was the fact that January consumer credit surged
>$16.1
> billion. A $5.3 billion rise was expected. If you don't think this is
>one
>of
> the most serious problems in our economy today, please think again. This
> figure not only shows an absurd level of complacency throughout society
>but
>is
> quite disturbing in the face of negative personal savings figures and
>down
> equity markets. As the savings rate continues to reach new record lows,
>the
> conspicuous consumer continues to spend with or without cash. Further,
>the
> consumer credit year-on-year growth rate has been continually increasing
>since
> May, 1998.
>
> The consumer is tapped out. The analysts and brokerage houses who are
>trying
> to sell the argument of the American consumer being a soldier who will
>fight
> this economy back to the days of tremendous growth we experienced in
>1999
>and
> early 2000 are missing one simple fact: The American consumer cannot
>fight
> much longer because they are nearly out of bullets.
>
> It is my opinion that the market is being manipulated here to drive the
> popular indexes higher in an event to suck in as much sideline cash as
> possible. There is no telling how long this will last but the only thing
>I
>do
> know is you must fade this move. The current environment does not
>support
> daytrading or scalping as moves both up and down are very abrupt and
>generate
> little follow through. Rather, being a positional trader at this
>juncture
>is
> the only way I see you can successfully participate in the upcoming
>move.
>
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