|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello
the valuation model(which makes sense is at
stockdoctor.com
(no affilliation)
Ben
and vectorvest.com
(no affiliation)
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 3:13 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Valuation - Tech
> For me, I try to use basic fundamentals and attempt to figure out when
they
> stop "tossing babies". I have seen some evidence that they are beginning
> to toss only the bath water but not enough for me to begin entering any of
> the large cap tech stocks. I have bought some Lam Research recently but
> it's already been tossed a few times and is at a level that I feel safe
> with it now.
>
> I doubt we will go back to the old 12-16 PE ratios as a measure of full
> value due to the broad spectrum of people in the market today and their
> ignorance of the old formula(s) but nothing is impossible. I still hold
> energy, a couple of utilities and the nation's largest cable company, T
but
> things don't seem very likely to improve dramatically until earnings
> estimates are generally revised across the board and firms can begin to
> beat these vastly lower figures.
>
> As to the beginning of a bear market rally, we may need the panic that
many
> believe is required or we may have, (from a fundamental view), already
seen
> the capitulation over weeks that is normally seen over a day or two. The
> DOW has been supported by the move out of NAS tech issues into what is
seen
> as safer ground so a case can be made for the DOW to collapse from this
> over-weighting and a case can be made for that money to flow back into NAS
> stocks or another for a simple panic out of equities. Either way, I too
> expect a rally in the NAS soon .. just not sure if it will be from this
> area or after a panic sell off, first.
>
> I expect another 1/2 point this month and a bias to neutral which will
> hopefully stop the markets from building in the next 1/2 point and
trashing
> things if they don't get it. In the mean time, we are having some great
> swings for trading and I hope everyone here is doing well.
>
> Bob
>
>
> At 10:49 AM 3/11/2001 -0600, you wrote:
> >BobR,
> >Thanks this formula gives me something to work with, for any stock,
whether
> >tech, energy or whatever.
> >
> >My point in asking the question is to attempt to determine when there is
> >value vs. overvalue and this may work. Since the pendulum frequently
swings
> >too far in both directions this approach maybe be enlightening perhaps
more
> >on the down slope, since trees did grow to the sky in the past few years
and
> >now I would like to know when they grow "underground".
> >
> >As a side note Ira I share your experience of never buying anything that
did
> >not go lower or sell something that did not go higher. Some aim for the
> >middle 70-80%, heck I will take the middle 40-50% if I can get it. I
> >normally sell too early and buy too soon, but I do trade my size and that
> >has made all the difference. As I have state right or wrong I have never
> >been a short seller of stocks other than Amazon. When it comes to futures
I
> >have no problem with buying or selling so maybe that is something I need
to
> >work on going forward.
> >
> >My intent in asking the question is to try to establish "some light" tech
> >positions potentially, therefore I am trying to figure out where the
> >pendulum might be for some of these companies, still over valued, or
> >approaching some sort of fair value. Depending on what I am able to
figure
> >out will determine my investment stance if any, trader or investor, or
stand
> >aside and wait.
> >don ewers
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 9:55 AM
> >Subject: Re: [RT] Valuation - Tech
> >
> >
> > > Sourced in part from Harvard Business Review May - June 1988. More
> >detailed
> > > explanation is attached.
> > >
> > > V = EPS(8.5 + 2g)4.4/Yaaa
> > >
> > > V = company's intrinisc value
> > > EPS = company's last 12-month earnings per share
> > > g = company's long-term earnings growth estimate
> > > Yaaa = is the yield on AAA corporate bonds.
> > > 8.5 represents the appropriate P-E ratio for a no-growth company as
> >proposed
> > > by Graham
> > > 4.4 was the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds in 1962
> > >
> > > To apply this approach to a buy-sell decision, each company's relative
> > > Graham value (RGV) can be determined by dividing the stock's intrinsic
> >value
> > > V by its current price P.
> > > RGV = V/P
> > > An RGV of less than one indicates an overavalued stock, while an RGV
of
> > > greater than one indicates an undervalued stock.
> > >
> > > bobr
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 5:37 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] Valuation - Tech
> > >
> > >
> > > > Avoiding trying to figure when and where the NASDAQ will potentially
> >turn
> > > > for the moment, what is the criteria one should use to invest again
in
> > > > technology.
> > > >
> > > > If possible let us also avoid an economic turn which understandably
is a
> > > big
> > > > part of the formula as is "product", market potential and so on. It
is
> > > > certainly not just price (XYZ has dropped below $20).
> > > >
> > > > Past earning performance, price to sales, price to book . . . .
what
> >does
> > > > the "institutional" investor use to decide when to step in and
"invest"
> > > once
> > > > again in this sector (or should I say carnage) assuming their
investment
> > > > horizon extends out for 1-2 years maybe more.
> > > >
> > > > Is there anyone on the list that knows what they look at
(understanding
> > > > there may be better areas to invest in such as energy, value
companies
> > > etc.
> > > > right now).
> > > >
> > > > Bottom line when will the Intel's, Sun Micro's, Cisco's,
Microsoft's,
> >LSI
> > > > Logic, ADC Telecommunications have "value"? Thoughts anyone. Does
this
> > > > really represent a significant opportunity today for one who has so
far
> > > > avoided this massive drop, as some are touting?
> > > >
> > > > The charts should tell us when to invest and that may be the
ultimate
> > > > answer, but for the moment is there any "fundamental's" one could
look
> >at
> > > > also.
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-~>
Make good on the promise you made at graduation to keep
in touch. Classmates.com has over 14 million registered
high school alumni--chances are you'll find your friends!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/l3joGB/DMUCAA/4ihDAA/zf_UlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------_->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|