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Date: Sat Mar 10 2001 03:06
Gold Coaster (From Mr Lonely, banished to Kitco's outer Siberia ... Ms
Cohen's
dismal record) ID#428141:
Copyright © 2000 Gold Coaster/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I found an interesting post on a message board thread by a Mark L. that
summarized Ms. Cohen's track record for the past year:
- On April 6th, she recommended her SUPER SEVEN stocks for the long-term:
CSCO, DELL, EMC, FDC, ORCL, PMCS, TER. As of yesterday's close, that
portfolio
is down 46.2%. Long-term is right, because that portfolio needs to go up
almost 100% to get back to where she recommended them.
- October 3rd, she recommended BEAS, CSCO, EMC, JNPR, NTAP and ORCL. That
portfolio is down 60.2%. Oye vey.
- November 27th, she recommended CSCO ( she hadn't had enough ) , DOX, EMC
(
she still hadn't had enough ) , GLW, ITWO, SLR, SUNW, and VRTS. As of
yesterday's close, that portfolio is down 39.63%.
Now, Ms. Cohen is trying to convince us to buy once again as she is
increasing
her exposure to equities from 65% to 70%. Hmm... how does the old saying
go?... "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me," I believe.
Very interesting record indeed, wouldn't you agree? Amazing that she still
gets television air time with such a dismal record. Fascinating still, is
the
fact that Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch could so blatantly front-run
Abby's
premarket call this morning which caused an enormous gap up in all indexes.
When a layperson tries to front-run, they end up in handcuffs and the
judicial
system makes 'an example' out of them. However, it is perfectly fine for
the
brokerage houses to do the exact same thing whenever they have the
opportunity
to. Isn't it fascinating that the federal government wants to control
virtually every aspect of how we act, work, love, and spend our time in
private, yet the Wayne Angells and Abby Cohens of the world can commit
these
acts of fraud without lifting a regulative eyebrow?
In fact, various brokerage houses came out today with lists of stocks we
should "BUY NOW." They are telling us we should be buying equities right
now
because the economic environment will only get better with the Federal
Reserve
in a rate easing mode and a potential tax cut later this year. Let's just
say
I feel a little differently.
Let there be no doubt here, the Titanic is going down but the band is
playing
as loud as it possibly can.
All week long we have heard portfolio managers and stock gurus tell us how
"value is back in vogue" and how you had to buy "old economy" stocks here.
However, they failed to specify which sectors they considered to be values.
Let's see, can't be the healthcare sector because that is trading at
historically high multiples... can't be the retail patch because those are
trading at ridiculously high multiples as well. In fact, you cannot find
such
a sector because such a sector doesn't exist. As I stated yesterday, the
Dow
index and the various momentum sectors which have been created within the
Dow
are now experiencing the same parabolic stock moves and stretched
valuations
we witnessed in the technology sector when the Nasdaq made its blow-off
move
to 5100. This time, however, noone is warning us of the danger that
potentially lies ahead. Rather, we are being told that the consumer will
continue to spend and drive this economy out of this listless period. Is
that
so?
What probably excaped the headlines late in the day as pure euphoria spread
throughout the NYSE was the fact that January consumer credit surged $16.1
billion. A $5.3 billion rise was expected. If you don't think this is one
of
the most serious problems in our economy today, please think again. This
figure not only shows an absurd level of complacency throughout society but
is
quite disturbing in the face of negative personal savings figures and down
equity markets. As the savings rate continues to reach new record lows, the
conspicuous consumer continues to spend with or without cash. Further, the
consumer credit year-on-year growth rate has been continually increasing
since
May, 1998.
The consumer is tapped out. The analysts and brokerage houses who are
trying
to sell the argument of the American consumer being a soldier who will
fight
this economy back to the days of tremendous growth we experienced in 1999
and
early 2000 are missing one simple fact: The American consumer cannot fight
much longer because they are nearly out of bullets.
It is my opinion that the market is being manipulated here to drive the
popular indexes higher in an event to suck in as much sideline cash as
possible. There is no telling how long this will last but the only thing I
do
know is you must fade this move. The current environment does not support
daytrading or scalping as moves both up and down are very abrupt and
generate
little follow through. Rather, being a positional trader at this juncture
is
the only way I see you can successfully participate in the upcoming move.
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