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My observation is that there appears to be a 6-7 year Guru cycle.
Granville - 1975 - 1981
Precter - 1981 - 1987
Garzerelli - 1987 - 1993
Abby JoCo 1994 - 2000 (she's dead but doesn't know it yet)
Unknown Yet 2000-01 - 2006-07 (place your bets)
Cheers,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan Harels" <harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:45 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] re:Ms. Cohen's track record for the past year
>
> Giving credit where credit is due, I think this originally showed up in a
> commentary by Goran on TradingMarkets.com. Goran's last name escapes me,
> but, there can't be that many of them. He writes an irreverant and
> entertaining commentary nightly that has generally been on the mark. If
you
> haven't seen it, TradingMarkets.com offers a free trial.
>
> No affiliation. Just a satisfied customer.
>
> Dan
>
> >From: SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
> >Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >Subject: [RT] re:Ms. Cohen's track record for the past year
> >Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 13:42:33 EST
> >
> >
> > Date: Sat Mar 10 2001 03:06
> > Gold Coaster (From Mr Lonely, banished to Kitco's outer Siberia ... Ms
> >Cohen's
> > dismal record) ID#428141:
> > Copyright © 2000 Gold Coaster/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
> > I found an interesting post on a message board thread by a Mark L.
that
> > summarized Ms. Cohen's track record for the past year:
> >
> > - On April 6th, she recommended her SUPER SEVEN stocks for the
> >long-term:
> > CSCO, DELL, EMC, FDC, ORCL, PMCS, TER. As of yesterday's close, that
> >portfolio
> > is down 46.2%. Long-term is right, because that portfolio needs to go
up
> > almost 100% to get back to where she recommended them.
> >
> > - October 3rd, she recommended BEAS, CSCO, EMC, JNPR, NTAP and ORCL.
> >That
> > portfolio is down 60.2%. Oye vey.
> >
> > - November 27th, she recommended CSCO ( she hadn't had enough ) , DOX,
> >EMC
> >(
> > she still hadn't had enough ) , GLW, ITWO, SLR, SUNW, and VRTS. As of
> > yesterday's close, that portfolio is down 39.63%.
> >
> > Now, Ms. Cohen is trying to convince us to buy once again as she is
> >increasing
> > her exposure to equities from 65% to 70%. Hmm... how does the old
saying
> > go?... "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me," I
> >believe.
> >
> > Very interesting record indeed, wouldn't you agree? Amazing that she
> >still
> > gets television air time with such a dismal record. Fascinating still,
> >is
> >the
> > fact that Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch could so blatantly front-run
> >Abby's
> > premarket call this morning which caused an enormous gap up in all
> >indexes.
> > When a layperson tries to front-run, they end up in handcuffs and the
> >judicial
> > system makes 'an example' out of them. However, it is perfectly fine
for
> >the
> > brokerage houses to do the exact same thing whenever they have the
> >opportunity
> > to. Isn't it fascinating that the federal government wants to control
> > virtually every aspect of how we act, work, love, and spend our time
in
> > private, yet the Wayne Angells and Abby Cohens of the world can commit
> >these
> > acts of fraud without lifting a regulative eyebrow?
> >
> > In fact, various brokerage houses came out today with lists of stocks
we
> > should "BUY NOW." They are telling us we should be buying equities
right
> >now
> > because the economic environment will only get better with the Federal
> >Reserve
> > in a rate easing mode and a potential tax cut later this year. Let's
> >just
> >say
> > I feel a little differently.
> >
> > Let there be no doubt here, the Titanic is going down but the band is
> >playing
> > as loud as it possibly can.
> >
> > All week long we have heard portfolio managers and stock gurus tell us
> >how
> > "value is back in vogue" and how you had to buy "old economy" stocks
> >here.
> > However, they failed to specify which sectors they considered to be
> >values.
> > Let's see, can't be the healthcare sector because that is trading at
> > historically high multiples... can't be the retail patch because those
> >are
> > trading at ridiculously high multiples as well. In fact, you cannot
find
> >such
> > a sector because such a sector doesn't exist. As I stated yesterday,
the
> >Dow
> > index and the various momentum sectors which have been created within
> >the
> >Dow
> > are now experiencing the same parabolic stock moves and stretched
> >valuations
> > we witnessed in the technology sector when the Nasdaq made its
blow-off
> >move
> > to 5100. This time, however, noone is warning us of the danger that
> > potentially lies ahead. Rather, we are being told that the consumer
will
> > continue to spend and drive this economy out of this listless period.
Is
> >that
> > so?
> >
> > What probably excaped the headlines late in the day as pure euphoria
> >spread
> > throughout the NYSE was the fact that January consumer credit surged
> >$16.1
> > billion. A $5.3 billion rise was expected. If you don't think this is
> >one
> >of
> > the most serious problems in our economy today, please think again.
This
> > figure not only shows an absurd level of complacency throughout
society
> >but
> >is
> > quite disturbing in the face of negative personal savings figures and
> >down
> > equity markets. As the savings rate continues to reach new record
lows,
> >the
> > conspicuous consumer continues to spend with or without cash. Further,
> >the
> > consumer credit year-on-year growth rate has been continually
increasing
> >since
> > May, 1998.
> >
> > The consumer is tapped out. The analysts and brokerage houses who are
> >trying
> > to sell the argument of the American consumer being a soldier who will
> >fight
> > this economy back to the days of tremendous growth we experienced in
> >1999
> >and
> > early 2000 are missing one simple fact: The American consumer cannot
> >fight
> > much longer because they are nearly out of bullets.
> >
> > It is my opinion that the market is being manipulated here to drive
the
> > popular indexes higher in an event to suck in as much sideline cash as
> > possible. There is no telling how long this will last but the only
thing
> >I
> >do
> > know is you must fade this move. The current environment does not
> >support
> > daytrading or scalping as moves both up and down are very abrupt and
> >generate
> > little follow through. Rather, being a positional trader at this
> >juncture
> >is
> > the only way I see you can successfully participate in the upcoming
> >move.
> >
>
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