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JW wrote:
> FYI...
>
> JW,
Using your post as an example, may I recommend to the list that if you
are going to quote or copy someone's writings or article, that you make this
clear at the beginning. I thought I was reading JW's writings and wondered if
it was a plug for "his company" until I got to the end and realized it was
from PEI.
Now that we know its from Martin Armstrong's PEI, I would like to ask if
they offer computers and e-mail in jail?
Thanks,
Norman
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: James Smith [mailto:JSmith@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, April 28, 2000 10:32 PM
> Subject: Is a Gold Price Slide somehow related to the next
> leg down for Stocks?
>
> Gold closed the week below 277.1---our key weekly bearish
> reversal---which confirms a coming slide towards 252 area
> and possible New Lows. Because a weekly reversal is an
> intermediate-term signal, it does not preclude a short-term
> rally before the real move begins.
>
> But when it starts...probably some time in the next week
> or two....it will be awesome to behold. This also hints
> at the likely direction of stocks. We know that the S&P
> and the Dow will start the next leg of their correction
> some time between next week and Mid-May. Could it be that
> this will be a replay of the last wk of Aug '98 when gold
> and the S&P went down together?
>
> Given the PANIC CYCLE WEEK due for GOLD next week, it might
> be that gold rallies the first few days of next week (to run
> the stops and take out any aggressive shorts) and then
> plunges into the end of the week and beyond til every last
> gold bug has forsworn the dirty yellow metal forever.
>
> (A Panic Cycle often shows volatility in both directions)
>
> IS IT GOING TO BE A SWAN SONG OR A SWAN DIVE?
>
> I hope Warren Buffett has a nice weekend because if I'm
> right, not long after he has the chance to crow about a
> 44% rebound in his stock, he will soon be eating crow as
> DOW/S&P "value" stocks start their next leg down of this
> bear market. Again this move could happen next week or
> it may not happen until Mid-May.
>
> Many consider it a sign of the times that giants like the
> Soros Quantum Fund suddenly loses two key strategists who
> freely admit to mistakes but blame it on huge market
> volatility. (Clue: I doubt they are big believers in cycles)
>
> Druckenmiller is not the first, nor will he be the last
> player exit the markets. More astonishing than his exit,
> will be the day that Buffett finally admits that "hey, maybe
> timing is important, and this "buy & hold" mentality has run
> its course."
>
> Do you remember any great "Buy & Hold" investors from the
> early 1930's? ......I think not!
>
> We are not saying this selloff in stocks will be a repeat
> of 1929, but we are saying the volatility will test the
> fortitude of all those who "think" they are longterm investors.
>
> Our company does something that brokers, academics, polticians,
> and value players like Buffett are desparately trying to
> convince you is imposisble: We time the market.
>
> Does this mean we always get it right? No of course not!
> But those who believe that technical analysis and the study
> of cycles are akin to casting chicken bones to decide your
> trading strategy, are about to get an up close and personal
> view of what cycles can do when they go against you.
>
> REMINDER:
> Again, we are not longterm bearish on GOLD. As one
> client pointed out to me today, isn't it ironic that
> the Swiss will plant the low in gold. Its a bit like
> the Economist and their cover story predicting that OIL
> was headed for $5.00. The issue hit the stands at the
> perfect time to buy oil.
>
> So am I saying the Swiss are stupid?.....Nope! In fact
> they don't have much choice do they? The Swiss National
> Bank must have known that it was the ECB's intention to
> allow the EURO to slide. Why do you suppose they are
> suddenly so eager to begin selling that 1300 ton overhang?
>
> Perhaps the ECB whispered to the SNB that they were going
> to allow the EURO to slide knowing that it would force the
> SNB to get busy...and sell that gold like they have been
> promsing to do for eons.
>
> But why would the ECB want the SNB to sell their gold?
>
> .....because depressing the price of gold is nice way to
> paint a picture of low inflation....and it costs the ECB
> nothing because the Swiss are going to do their dirty work
> (in selling gold).
>
> But why do the Swiss have to sell gold?
>
> ....because the Swiss know the slide in the EURO will price
> the Swiss Franc right out the market. The Swiss might as
> well close up shop....their own economy would suffer enormous
> damage as selling Swiss goods to the rest of Europe would
> become impossible as the Swiss Franc appreciates against the
> EURO.
>
> The solution is for the Swiss to sell gold to bring down the
> value of the Swiss Franc. To really bring down the value the
> of the Swiss Franc, they will have to sell a lot of gold.
>
> Hey, does this sorta match up with our view on gold......
> ....perhaps. Alright it fits.
>
> People are not stupid, even if governments are!
>
> For every oz. of gold the Swiss government sells, there
> will be a sharpie Swissie out there buying 2 oz.
>
> Think about it....if you were Swiss and you knew the
> logic implicit in your government's policy is to turn
> your currency into monopoly money (Hello Japan) would
> you keep your money in that currency?????.....or would
> you buy gold to offset that risk.
>
> Probably the best idea is to move your Swiss Francs into
> USD before the gold plunge and then use that money to
> buy gold after the plunge.
>
> This in effect goes some ways towards explaining why gold
> will go down, but not stay down. It also explains the
> rather interesting move up in USD index of late.
>
> Again, I repeat:
>
> Governments are stupid....people are not.
>
> When the US Treasury Dept manipulates the yield curve,
> they only set up a bigger correction for the bond market
> going forward. When the ECB manipulate the price of
> gold thru the SNB, they set up raging chaos that will
> backfire.
>
> One of the key lessons learned from the 1987 Crash
> was that government actually caused the bubble leading
> up to the crash. The Gang of 5 (the G5) got together in
> 1985 to bash the USD. They succeeded. But in doing
> so they cause huge capital movements into the USD
> as Europeans and Japanese scooped up US assets
> after the USD declined. This drove up the stock market,
> real estate, and other USD denominated assets.
>
> When will government learn the simple lesson that
> manipulating markets just isn't a good idea???
>
> I don't think government will ever learn because most
> of them are either corrupt or power-mad or both.
> These Central Bankers are like kids in the candy store
> told not to touch the candy. You can't blame them.
> Secretly they are quite envious of the money made
> by traders. They are the High Priests who find
> themselves with mixed emotions about money.
>
> They enjoy the power they have over the global
> economy more than a rich man enjoys money. And
> secretly they must also enjoy destroying more than
> a few traders' fortunes.
>
> If the financial markets are coming into larger and larger
> volatility of late, the policies of government have a huge
> part to play in this volatility.
>
> **************************************
>
> To read up on our Models and Methodologies, click here:
>
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