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hi where do people get this stuff about snb wishing to cause a ccy flight
and helping ecb with gold.If one really wants to be informed the SNB will be
a seller of gold so is happily selling usds commercially.They are also
selling usds for euroes commercially on a daily basis,so the hypotheses is
total rubbish if anything the nature of swiss monetary tightening is seeing
strains in the old dem chf /eurochf rate which might see a move over next 18
mnths to 1.5300 if the euro stays perceptibly weak.The snb has stated that
on trade weighted terms the strong usds facilatates a moderate stregthening
in chf agst euro, ultimately they along with certain northern european
central banks would like too see the euro strengthen back to 1.00 this year
and to 1.100 over the next 24 months.
On a personal basis the euro is a long term buy and small parcels from
0.9050 to where the overshoot is will be rewarded and all commentators and
traders will be amazed by there over bearishness just like usd yen in the
mid 90s at 80.00 lvls subsequently we went to 146.
regards
mark
www.paratechnics.pair.com the informed forex vwiew
-----Original Message-----
From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of nwinski
Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 12:10 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: Is a Gold Price Slide somehow related to the next leg
down for Stocks?
JW wrote:
> FYI...
>
> JW,
Using your post as an example, may I recommend to the list that if you
are going to quote or copy someone's writings or article, that you make this
clear at the beginning. I thought I was reading JW's writings and wondered
if
it was a plug for "his company" until I got to the end and realized it was
from PEI.
Now that we know its from Martin Armstrong's PEI, I would like to ask if
they offer computers and e-mail in jail?
Thanks,
Norman
>
ca
>
> REMINDER:
> Again, we are not longterm bearish on GOLD. As one
> client pointed out to me today, isn't it ironic that
> the Swiss will plant the low in gold. Its a bit like
> the Economist and their cover story predicting that OIL
> was headed for $5.00. The issue hit the stands at the
> perfect time to buy oil.
>
> So am I saying the Swiss are stupid?.....Nope! In fact
> they don't have much choice do they? The Swiss National
> Bank must have known that it was the ECB's intention to
> allow the EURO to slide. Why do you suppose they are
> suddenly so eager to begin selling that 1300 ton overhang?
>
> Perhaps the ECB whispered to the SNB that they were going
> to allow the EURO to slide knowing that it would force the
> SNB to get busy...and sell that gold like they have been
> promsing to do for eons.
>
> But why would the ECB want the SNB to sell their gold?
>
> .....because depressing the price of gold is nice way to
> paint a picture of low inflation....and it costs the ECB
> nothing because the Swiss are going to do their dirty work
> (in selling gold).
>
> But why do the Swiss have to sell gold?
>
> ....because the Swiss know the slide in the EURO will price
> the Swiss Franc right out the market. The Swiss might as
> well close up shop....their own economy would suffer enormous
> damage as selling Swiss goods to the rest of Europe would
> become impossible as the Swiss Franc appreciates against the
> EURO.
>
> The solution is for the Swiss to sell gold to bring down the
> value of the Swiss Franc. To really bring down the value the
> of the Swiss Franc, they will have to sell a lot of gold.
>
> Hey, does this sorta match up with our view on gold......
> ....perhaps. Alright it fits.
>
> People are not stupid, even if governments are!
>
> For every oz. of gold the Swiss government sells, there
> will be a sharpie Swissie out there buying 2 oz.
>
> Think about it....if you were Swiss and you knew the
> logic implicit in your government's policy is to turn
> your currency into monopoly money (Hello Japan) would
> you keep your money in that currency?????.....or would
> you buy gold to offset that risk.
>
> Probably the best idea is to move your Swiss Francs into
> USD before the gold plunge and then use that money to
> buy gold after the plunge.
>
> This in effect goes some ways towards explaining why gold
> will go down, but not stay down. It also explains the
> rather interesting move up in USD index of late.
>
> Again, I repeat:
>
> Governments are stupid....people are not.
>
> When the US Treasury Dept manipulates the yield curve,
> they only set up a bigger correction for the bond market
> going forward. When the ECB manipulate the price of
> gold thru the SNB, they set up raging chaos that will
> backfire.
>
> One of the key lessons learned from the 1987 Crash
> was that government actually caused the bubble leading
> up to the crash. The Gang of 5 (the G5) got together in
> 1985 to bash the USD. They succeeded. But in doing
> so they cause huge capital movements into the USD
> as Europeans and Japanese scooped up US assets
> after the USD declined. This drove up the stock market,
> real estate, and other USD denominated assets.
>
> When will government learn the simple lesson that
> manipulating markets just isn't a good idea???
>
> I don't think government will ever learn because most
> of them are either corrupt or power-mad or both.
> These Central Bankers are like kids in the candy store
> told not to touch the candy. You can't blame them.
> Secretly they are quite envious of the money made
> by traders. They are the High Priests who find
> themselves with mixed emotions about money.
>
> They enjoy the power they have over the global
> economy more than a rich man enjoys money. And
> secretly they must also enjoy destroying more than
> a few traders' fortunes.
>
> If the financial markets are coming into larger and larger
> volatility of late, the policies of government have a huge
> part to play in this volatility.
>
> **************************************
>
> To read up on our Models and Methodologies, click here:
>
> http://www.pei-intl.com/MODELFRM.HTM
>
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