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[RT] GEN - moon effect -- a system to demonstrate this

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Subject: [RT] GEN - moon effect -- a system to demonstrate this
From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2000 00:14:29 -0700
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<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>I reported yesterday on a study using the 
Moon effect to see</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>if there really was one.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Below are two items:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>1.&nbsp; The statistics from running a 
system I call&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
C_Lee_UpDnCount+Moon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>which is well explained in the second 
item.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>2.&nbsp; Code for system used in the 
following study.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Attached is an&nbsp; .ela&nbsp; file of the 
system noted in&nbsp;&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;&nbsp; .</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>In order to make it simple for you (and me) 
to do a study</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>of the effect of the moon I included a MODE 
parameter which</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>for Mode=0 uses the "good" moon effect, for 
Mode=1 uses the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>"bad" moon effect, and for Mode=2 uses NO 
moon effect at all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Although the system yields 12% more total 
profit, with no</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>moon effect specified, the </FONT><FONT 
face="Courier New" size=2>drawdown for this mode is 69% </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>higher than the "good" (mode=0) moon 
</FONT><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>mode.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>That alone is strong proof that the moon 
has a very dramatic</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>effect on index values.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>However, the real proof is in switching to 
the "bad" (mode=1)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>moon mode and finding that the profit is 
34% of that of the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>"good" moon mode and that the drawdown for 
this mode is 236%</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>higher than with the "good" 
mode.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>This system works on 30 minute data but 
does not do too well</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>on daily data in the few tests I 
ran.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>This test is based on the SP cash index 
(not the OEX previously</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>reported).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>I really hope we get some interest in using 
this technique</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>in other systems to see if it works 
generally or just with</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>certain type systems.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>This study (on SP cash) illustrates that it 
will work on more</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>than one index.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Test&nbsp;&nbsp; C_Lee_UpDnCount+Moon 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2><BR>Mode&nbsp;&nbsp; 
NetPrft&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; GrossP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
GrossL&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; ROA&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
MaxDD<BR>0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 214990.00&nbsp; 548172.50&nbsp;&nbsp; 
333182.50&nbsp;&nbsp; 1079.40&nbsp;&nbsp; 19917.50<BR>1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
73812.50&nbsp; 445965.00&nbsp;&nbsp; 372152.50&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
156.51&nbsp;&nbsp; 47162.50<BR>2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 241535.00&nbsp; 
946465.00&nbsp;&nbsp; 704930.00&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 713.91&nbsp;&nbsp; 
33832.50</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Mode&nbsp; #Trds&nbsp;&nbsp; 
%Prft&nbsp;&nbsp; #WTrds&nbsp; #LTrds&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
BigWTrd&nbsp;&nbsp; BigLTrd<BR>0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
423&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
126&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 297&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 30247.50&nbsp;&nbsp; 
3797.50<BR>1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
446&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
113&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 333&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 18955.00&nbsp;&nbsp; 
8587.50<BR>2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
968&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 31&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
305&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 663&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 18955.00&nbsp;&nbsp; 
8587.50</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Avg&nbsp;&nbsp; Avg<BR>Mode&nbsp; AvgWTrd&nbsp; AvgLTrd Avg W/L&nbsp; AvgTrd MxW 
MxL WBars LBars<BR>0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4350.58&nbsp; 
1121.83&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3.88&nbsp; 508.25&nbsp; 4&nbsp;&nbsp; 
17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5<BR>1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
3946.59&nbsp; 1117.58&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3.53&nbsp; 165.50&nbsp; 4&nbsp;&nbsp; 
17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5<BR>2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
3103.16&nbsp; 1063.24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2.92&nbsp; 249.52&nbsp; 4&nbsp;&nbsp; 
14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>= = = = = = = = =&nbsp; code for system 
follows = = = = = = = = = = = =</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;System:&nbsp;&nbsp; 
C_Lee_UpDnCount+Moon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Purpose:&nbsp; 
Trading system for 30 minute bar data which enters 
when<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;a specified number of bars of rising/falling 
prices has happened<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;provided also that the MOON is in 
the correct phase (which can 
be<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;specified).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Exit on a T3Average 
or on MoneyManagement stop or N Number bars<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;in a 
trade.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Can trade with 
either (adjusted) moon phase or with no moon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>}</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Input:&nbsp; EnterKnt (3),&nbsp;&nbsp; 
{Level of Up/DnCount to Buy/Sell contract&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BarsDiff(2),&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
{Number bars between points to measure up/dn&nbsp;&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T3Leng(17),&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
{Number bars in T3Average for exit from trade&nbsp; }<BR>&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;WaitBars(0),&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; {&gt;0=Exit after 
this number of bars in trade&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;MonMStop(1000), {&lt;50=%ATR 
stop from Entry Price &gt;50=Dollars&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;MoonAdju(4),&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
{Number days to shift moon trade cycle -15-&gt;15 }<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Mode(0);&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
{0=buy&nbsp; when moon passes full until new&nbsp; moon&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;{&nbsp; sell when 
moon passes new&nbsp; until full moon&nbsp; } 
<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;{1=sell when moon passes full until new&nbsp; moon&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;{&nbsp; buy&nbsp; when moon passes new&nbsp; until full moon&nbsp; 
}&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;{2=NO 
MOON EFFECT AT 
ALL&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
}<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>Vars:&nbsp;&nbsp; 
MP(0),&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
StartBar(CurrentBar);<BR>Vars:&nbsp;&nbsp; UpCount(0),&nbsp;&nbsp; 
DnCount(0);<BR>Vars:&nbsp;&nbsp; PtsStopMM(MonMStop/BigPointValue);</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>MP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
=MarketPosition;<BR>If MP&lt;&gt;MP[1] Then StartBar=CURRENTBAR;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{Use Money management stop if 
desired}<BR>If MonMStop&gt;0 then begin<BR>&nbsp;If MonMStop&lt;50 then 
PtsStopMM=AvgTrueRange(21)*MonMStop;<BR>&nbsp;If MP&gt;0 then ExitLong&nbsp; at 
EntryPrice-PtsStopMM Stop;<BR>&nbsp;If MP&lt;0 then ExitShort at 
EntryPrice+PtsStopMM Stop;<BR>End;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{Count number of bars close has been 
Up/Down}<BR>If C&gt;C[BarsDiff] then 
begin<BR>&nbsp;UpCount=UpCount+1;<BR>&nbsp;DnCount=0;<BR>End;<BR>If 
C&lt;C[BarsDiff] then 
begin<BR>&nbsp;DnCount=DnCount+1;<BR>&nbsp;UpCount=0;<BR>End;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{Enter if UpCount/DnCount &gt;= 
EnterKnt and correct Moon Phase}<BR>Value4=mod(Moonday_V2+MoonAdju,29);<BR>If 
Mode=0 then begin<BR>&nbsp; Condition1=UpCount&gt;=EnterKnt and Value4&gt;14.5 
;<BR>&nbsp; Condition2=DnCount&gt;=EnterKnt and Value4&lt;14.5 ;<BR>End<BR>Else 
If Mode=1 then begin<BR>&nbsp; Condition1=UpCount&gt;=EnterKnt and 
Value4&lt;14.5 ;<BR>&nbsp; Condition2=DnCount&gt;=EnterKnt and Value4&gt;14.5 
;<BR>End<BR>Else begin<BR>&nbsp; Condition1=UpCount&gt;=EnterKnt ;<BR>&nbsp; 
Condition2=DnCount&gt;=EnterKnt ;<BR>End;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>If MP&lt;=0 then If Condition1 then 
Buy&nbsp; ("enl") at Market;<BR>If MP&gt;=0 then If Condition2 then Sell ("ens") 
at Market;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{Exit on 3 bar T3Average above/below T3Leng 
bar 
T3Average}<BR>Value2=T3Average(C,T3Leng);<BR>Value3=T3Average(C,3);<BR>Value1=Value3-Value2;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>If MP&lt;0 then If Value1 Crosses 
Over&nbsp; 0&nbsp; then ExitShort;<BR>If MP&gt;0 then If Value1 Crosses Under 
0&nbsp; then ExitLong;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{Exit after WaitBars number of bars if 
set}<BR>If WaitBars&gt;0 then begin<BR>&nbsp; If CurrentBar-StartBar&gt;WaitBars 
then begin<BR>&nbsp; &nbsp;ExitLong;<BR>&nbsp; 
&nbsp;ExitShort;<BR>&nbsp;End;<BR>End;<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>= = = = = = = = =&nbsp; code for system 
above = = = = = = = = = = = = =</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - -<BR>Clyde Lee&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Chairman/CEO&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (Home of 
SwingMachine)<BR>SYTECH 
Corporation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
email:&nbsp;&nbsp; &lt;</FONT><A href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxx";><FONT 
face="Courier New" size=2>clydelee@xxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New" 
size=2>&gt; <BR>7910 Westglen, Suite 105&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Work:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (713) 783-9540<BR>Houston,&nbsp; TX&nbsp; 
77063&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
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