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I did my counts by hand for years and purchased AGet for another
perspective. AGet does a decent job of counts perhaps half the time
which is about as good as most analysts. I continue to do my own counts
and if they don't agree with AGet's, I either accept AGet's counts (if
they look superior) or turn off AGet's counts and use my own. I've also
gained an understanding of where AGet tends to go wrong and don't
hesitate to shut off the counts under those circumstances. I do like the
drawing tools and a couple of the proprietary tools (MOB, Ellipse, Fib
time tool) in AGet so it's become my primary trading platform.
Generally, like any methodology, the best trades are found where the
ducks line up in all time periods and the worst trades where the signals
conflict.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 7:51 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bond market update
> Earl -
>
> I have never been a big fan of AGet counts. I have been told that they
> have different counts for hourly, daily and weekly (according to other
> people telling me, since I do not use it).
>
> Essentially, I counted five waves to the bottom at 88:23 as wave-A of
a
> bear market. The initial bounce off the lows I count as wave-1. The
> drop, spike to new highs and subsequent fall I am counting as an
> irregular 2nd wave. From that bottom, wave-3 would have been 1.618
times
> wave-1 at 99-22. Also, it is the top of a channel for 0-2 and 1-3.
>
> Of course, it could also be the end of a-b-c and now in w5 down, but
> that is even harder to imagine now. With my expectations of still
lower
> stox for medium term, hard to see new lows in bonds. Also hard to see
> this as 4th wave still, and retracing 1/2 of the whole bear move from
> Oct. 1998.
>
> Steve
>
>
>
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>
> url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 9:37 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Bond market update
>
>
> > You are braver than I. The last 3 corrections to the rally which
I've
> > expected are all missing in action and my counts haven't been
working
> at
> > all. AGet is currently showing a possible w.4 target of 101. Should
> > bonds reach 101, I don't see w.5 getting back to the previous lows.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 8:16 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Bond market update
> >
> >
> > > I have not posted much lately on bonds, but figured I'd give it a
> > quick
> > > once over.
> > >
> > > I have been bullish bonds for a while, but had been looking for a
> > > correction that just did not want to develop. The counts off the
> lows
> > > were difficult, but if you allow for an irregular 2nd wave off the
> > lows
> > > at 88:23, then we would have had a 3rd wave projection high at
> 99:22.
> > > Channel top also touched (using wave-1 high, not wave-b of
wave-2).
> > > Finally, RSI confirmed the highs. I see this as wave-3 of wave-A
off
> > the
> > > bear market. Dip into 96:30 or a bit lower is due, but we can
reach
> > 100
> > > before May is out on futures to complete wave-A. Sharp drop after
> that
> > > (the real bear market in stox) could be in conjunction with stocks
> if
> > > lagging inflation shows up and Fed raises rates -- which I still
> > > expect -- for wave-B to higher yields/lower prices in bonds.
Wave-C
> > to
> > > lower yields for bonds as bear market in stox continues over the
> > summer
> > > and into the fall. Yields could challenge low-5.00% range towards
> the
> > > end of the year, though more likely will hold closer to 5.38%.
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Steven W. Poser, President
> > > Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> > >
> > > url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> > > email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > > Tel: 201-995-0845
> > > Fax: 201-995-0846
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
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