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I have not posted much lately on bonds, but figured I'd give it a quick
once over.
I have been bullish bonds for a while, but had been looking for a
correction that just did not want to develop. The counts off the lows
were difficult, but if you allow for an irregular 2nd wave off the lows
at 88:23, then we would have had a 3rd wave projection high at 99:22.
Channel top also touched (using wave-1 high, not wave-b of wave-2).
Finally, RSI confirmed the highs. I see this as wave-3 of wave-A off the
bear market. Dip into 96:30 or a bit lower is due, but we can reach 100
before May is out on futures to complete wave-A. Sharp drop after that
(the real bear market in stox) could be in conjunction with stocks if
lagging inflation shows up and Fed raises rates -- which I still
expect -- for wave-B to higher yields/lower prices in bonds. Wave-C to
lower yields for bonds as bear market in stox continues over the summer
and into the fall. Yields could challenge low-5.00% range towards the
end of the year, though more likely will hold closer to 5.38%.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
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