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Earl -
I have never been a big fan of AGet counts. I have been told that they
have different counts for hourly, daily and weekly (according to other
people telling me, since I do not use it).
Essentially, I counted five waves to the bottom at 88:23 as wave-A of a
bear market. The initial bounce off the lows I count as wave-1. The
drop, spike to new highs and subsequent fall I am counting as an
irregular 2nd wave. From that bottom, wave-3 would have been 1.618 times
wave-1 at 99-22. Also, it is the top of a channel for 0-2 and 1-3.
Of course, it could also be the end of a-b-c and now in w5 down, but
that is even harder to imagine now. With my expectations of still lower
stox for medium term, hard to see new lows in bonds. Also hard to see
this as 4th wave still, and retracing 1/2 of the whole bear move from
Oct. 1998.
Steve
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, April 05, 2000 9:37 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Bond market update
> You are braver than I. The last 3 corrections to the rally which I've
> expected are all missing in action and my counts haven't been working
at
> all. AGet is currently showing a possible w.4 target of 101. Should
> bonds reach 101, I don't see w.5 getting back to the previous lows.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 8:16 PM
> Subject: [RT] Bond market update
>
>
> > I have not posted much lately on bonds, but figured I'd give it a
> quick
> > once over.
> >
> > I have been bullish bonds for a while, but had been looking for a
> > correction that just did not want to develop. The counts off the
lows
> > were difficult, but if you allow for an irregular 2nd wave off the
> lows
> > at 88:23, then we would have had a 3rd wave projection high at
99:22.
> > Channel top also touched (using wave-1 high, not wave-b of wave-2).
> > Finally, RSI confirmed the highs. I see this as wave-3 of wave-A off
> the
> > bear market. Dip into 96:30 or a bit lower is due, but we can reach
> 100
> > before May is out on futures to complete wave-A. Sharp drop after
that
> > (the real bear market in stox) could be in conjunction with stocks
if
> > lagging inflation shows up and Fed raises rates -- which I still
> > expect -- for wave-B to higher yields/lower prices in bonds. Wave-C
> to
> > lower yields for bonds as bear market in stox continues over the
> summer
> > and into the fall. Yields could challenge low-5.00% range towards
the
> > end of the year, though more likely will hold closer to 5.38%.
> >
> > ---
> > Steven W. Poser, President
> > Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> >
> > url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> > email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > Tel: 201-995-0845
> > Fax: 201-995-0846
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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