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You are braver than I. The last 3 corrections to the rally which I've
expected are all missing in action and my counts haven't been working at
all. AGet is currently showing a possible w.4 target of 101. Should
bonds reach 101, I don't see w.5 getting back to the previous lows.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 8:16 PM
Subject: [RT] Bond market update
> I have not posted much lately on bonds, but figured I'd give it a
quick
> once over.
>
> I have been bullish bonds for a while, but had been looking for a
> correction that just did not want to develop. The counts off the lows
> were difficult, but if you allow for an irregular 2nd wave off the
lows
> at 88:23, then we would have had a 3rd wave projection high at 99:22.
> Channel top also touched (using wave-1 high, not wave-b of wave-2).
> Finally, RSI confirmed the highs. I see this as wave-3 of wave-A off
the
> bear market. Dip into 96:30 or a bit lower is due, but we can reach
100
> before May is out on futures to complete wave-A. Sharp drop after that
> (the real bear market in stox) could be in conjunction with stocks if
> lagging inflation shows up and Fed raises rates -- which I still
> expect -- for wave-B to higher yields/lower prices in bonds. Wave-C
to
> lower yields for bonds as bear market in stox continues over the
summer
> and into the fall. Yields could challenge low-5.00% range towards the
> end of the year, though more likely will hold closer to 5.38%.
>
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>
> url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
>
>
>
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