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Message-ID: <38B7F762.F560C092@xxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2000 07:55:15 -0800
From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
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To: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Market Direction-Dow/S&P
References: <20000226044419.43351.qmail@xxxxxxxxxxx> <001b01bf8062$31ba3360$a74788ce@xxxx>
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Everyone has a different definition of a bear market. Simple, a bear market
is whenever you lose money. If you look at the times, it depends upon your
reference what is a bull or bear market. You are in a bull market as long
as Dow remains above 9000, based upon the 98 low. You are in a bull market
as long as the Dow remains above 6600 based upon the 94 low. Simple fib
retracement levels. How low can we go and remain in a bull market if you
use the 87 low or the 74 low? Using this same type of measure, how low can
the S&P 500 go and still be technically in a bull market. Does 840 sound
like a good number for a retracement of the 94 low? How about 1800 for the
NASDAQ retracement? These are methods which are used everyday by traders on
much smaller time frames to find support and resistance. I am not saying
that the markets are going there, I am saying that there are a lot of
different ways to look at what can be called a bull or bear market. The
majority of the public will tell you that they haven't lost any money if
their stock dropped from 86 to 36 because they haven't sold it yet. They
will tell you that they made 100,000 on there house because it went up from
$200,000 to $300,000. It is all in one perspective. By the way, he
probably borrowed against that extra $100,000 to buy $200,000 in tech
stocks.
Is this market a new phenom? I don't know how many of you were around in
the 60s, but I doubt very many. There was a book by John Brooks called "The
GO-GO Years: When Prices Went Topless". The book was referred to as "The
Real Money Game! Wall Street in the Swinging Sixties.......Before the Bubble
Burst!" You could have been looking in a mirror with the market of the past
several years. The volatility is greater, the swings are bigger, and it
cost $85,000 for a Jaguar instead of $3500. But then again there really
wasn't inflation because it happened at a rate of 3% per year.
You are fighting the same old story, dreams over reality. I trade
technically so I always have a trade to the upside and downside no matter
what I am looking at and past students will confirm that for you. Why is
Wal-Mart down 36% with great earnings and the stock of Ariba tripled with no
earnings. Even with a union contract Wal-Mart will do better then Ariba for
years to come. Of the 13 sectors in the S&P 500 only 2 are up for the year,
utilities and technology. Is that a bull market? The world once again has
abandoned reality for dreams of riches. People have mortgaged their homes
to by tech on margin. When this is over there will be a lot of very poor
people who shouldn't be. Greed will have its victims. Have a good week
end. Ira.
swp wrote:
> John -
>
> You must be the first person that I have ever met to call 12.5% a bear
> market!
>
> There is no exact definition for a bear market, but the general ones
> are:
>
> 1) At least 20% drop in the Dow.
>
> 2) Some put a timeframe on it too. A shallower drop in the Dow can be
> considered a bear if it takes a long time. If we were down 15% over a
> period of a year or so, it might be categorized a Dow, though even then,
> many would probably just call it a consolidation.
>
> Almost NOBODY considers the drop in 1998 a bear market since the Dow
> never CLOSED down 20%. They do not even consider it a CORRECTION until
> it is down 10%.
>
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>
> url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 11:44 PM
> Subject: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
>
> >
> > I am neither a Bull or a Bear but having bought and sold stocks since
> I was
> > 16 years old [and yes they let me do it at the time-Merrill Lynch]
> these are
> > my thoughts as an observer of many posts:
> >
> > 1.By definition we are in a Bear market.That is greater than a 12.5%
> Dow
> > decline.Currently we have hit about a 17% decline.
> >
> > 2.We have already hit the 3 step and stumble rule of interest
> rates.And
> > T-Bond yields have negated the increases to date.
> >
> > 3.Value is returning to many stocks conventionally valued.
> >
> > 4.Janus which has the ability to time niches is bringing out the
> Strategic
> > Value Fund as previously indicated at a very interesting point in time
> to be
> > funded.
> >
> > 5.Buffet just made some big value purchases.
> >
> > 6.In a good economy such as this Bear markets are short lived and if
> this
> > one goes longer than 2 more months I will be surprised.In bad
> economies I
> > believe Bear markets last on average 9 months to 3 years.
> >
> > 7.The Nasdaq 100 is a market unto itself and valued by parameters
> never
> > before endorsed other than to high growth rate stocks and even beyond
> that.
> >
> > 8.Ditto the micro caps.
> >
> > 9.Greenspan was fried at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings and actually
> ate crow
> > on many responses although he "Greenspoke" his way out very well.
> >
> > My conclusions without astrology ,charts,Gann and what have you are
> these:
> >
> > A. We will see 12,500 on the Dow before we see 7500.
> >
> > B. We will see 1550 on the S&P before we see 1100.
> >
> > C. We will see 5000 on the Nasdaq before we see 3000.
> >
> > I also vividly remember 1987 and having a Blue Chip portfolio which I
> had
> > sold covered calls on.The market tumbled and I did not lose any sleep
> > because value returned and so did the total value of my portfolio and
> > more.That was what I would call oversold by any standard.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
> >
> > P.S. Agilent is the next GE and some Dow stocks are a steal right now.
> > Merck just to name one.
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
> >
> >
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