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John -
You must be the first person that I have ever met to call 12.5% a bear
market!
There is no exact definition for a bear market, but the general ones
are:
1) At least 20% drop in the Dow.
2) Some put a timeframe on it too. A shallower drop in the Dow can be
considered a bear if it takes a long time. If we were down 15% over a
period of a year or so, it might be categorized a Dow, though even then,
many would probably just call it a consolidation.
Almost NOBODY considers the drop in 1998 a bear market since the Dow
never CLOSED down 20%. They do not even consider it a CORRECTION until
it is down 10%.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 11:44 PM
Subject: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
>
> I am neither a Bull or a Bear but having bought and sold stocks since
I was
> 16 years old [and yes they let me do it at the time-Merrill Lynch]
these are
> my thoughts as an observer of many posts:
>
> 1.By definition we are in a Bear market.That is greater than a 12.5%
Dow
> decline.Currently we have hit about a 17% decline.
>
> 2.We have already hit the 3 step and stumble rule of interest
rates.And
> T-Bond yields have negated the increases to date.
>
> 3.Value is returning to many stocks conventionally valued.
>
> 4.Janus which has the ability to time niches is bringing out the
Strategic
> Value Fund as previously indicated at a very interesting point in time
to be
> funded.
>
> 5.Buffet just made some big value purchases.
>
> 6.In a good economy such as this Bear markets are short lived and if
this
> one goes longer than 2 more months I will be surprised.In bad
economies I
> believe Bear markets last on average 9 months to 3 years.
>
> 7.The Nasdaq 100 is a market unto itself and valued by parameters
never
> before endorsed other than to high growth rate stocks and even beyond
that.
>
> 8.Ditto the micro caps.
>
> 9.Greenspan was fried at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings and actually
ate crow
> on many responses although he "Greenspoke" his way out very well.
>
> My conclusions without astrology ,charts,Gann and what have you are
these:
>
> A. We will see 12,500 on the Dow before we see 7500.
>
> B. We will see 1550 on the S&P before we see 1100.
>
> C. We will see 5000 on the Nasdaq before we see 3000.
>
> I also vividly remember 1987 and having a Blue Chip portfolio which I
had
> sold covered calls on.The market tumbled and I did not lose any sleep
> because value returned and so did the total value of my portfolio and
> more.That was what I would call oversold by any standard.
>
> Sincerely,
>
> John
>
> P.S. Agilent is the next GE and some Dow stocks are a steal right now.
> Merck just to name one.
> ______________________________________________________
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>
>
>
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