|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I am neither a Bull or a Bear but having bought and sold stocks since I was
16 years old [and yes they let me do it at the time-Merrill Lynch] these are
my thoughts as an observer of many posts:
1.By definition we are in a Bear market.That is greater than a 12.5% Dow
decline.Currently we have hit about a 17% decline.
2.We have already hit the 3 step and stumble rule of interest rates.And
T-Bond yields have negated the increases to date.
3.Value is returning to many stocks conventionally valued.
4.Janus which has the ability to time niches is bringing out the Strategic
Value Fund as previously indicated at a very interesting point in time to be
funded.
5.Buffet just made some big value purchases.
6.In a good economy such as this Bear markets are short lived and if this
one goes longer than 2 more months I will be surprised.In bad economies I
believe Bear markets last on average 9 months to 3 years.
7.The Nasdaq 100 is a market unto itself and valued by parameters never
before endorsed other than to high growth rate stocks and even beyond that.
8.Ditto the micro caps.
9.Greenspan was fried at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings and actually ate crow
on many responses although he "Greenspoke" his way out very well.
My conclusions without astrology ,charts,Gann and what have you are these:
A. We will see 12,500 on the Dow before we see 7500.
B. We will see 1550 on the S&P before we see 1100.
C. We will see 5000 on the Nasdaq before we see 3000.
I also vividly remember 1987 and having a Blue Chip portfolio which I had
sold covered calls on.The market tumbled and I did not lose any sleep
because value returned and so did the total value of my portfolio and
more.That was what I would call oversold by any standard.
Sincerely,
John
P.S. Agilent is the next GE and some Dow stocks are a steal right now.
Merck just to name one.
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
|