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<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The following quote from your last post </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><STRONG>there might be influences at work which might be
<U><EM>improperly</EM></U> affecting the projections</STRONG>?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>is what I want to discuss.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>NOTHING improperly affects the projections except bad data
points!!!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The environment which you setup for evaluation of the data in
the futures world DOES have</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>a MAJOR influence in the results.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To show this I have attached a WEEKLY study in which NO
ADJUSTMENT OF PRICES</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>was made at any time. Contracts were simply combined
from week to week and as you</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>can expect the patterns found under such a condition are NOT
the same as those</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>which were found on the original post where prices were BACK
ADJUSTED AND ONLY</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>COVERED DATA FROM 1988. Current data goes back to
1975.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Although in the projections from this dataset do NOT show NEW
LOWS, the projections</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>would make me think twice before making a large long
position.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>YES, THERE CAN BE A DIFFERENCE IN PROJECTIONS DEPENDING
ON</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>EXACTLY HOW FUTURES DATA IS CONFIGURED FOR ANALYSIS.
THIS, HOWEVER,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>IS TRUE OF ALL HISTORICAL STUDIES MADE USING FUTURES
DATA. I DON'T</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>REALLY WANT TO GET INTO AN ARGUMENT WITH ANYONE ABOUT WHAT
IS</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PROPER 'CAUSE I GUESS ABSOLUTELY NOTING IS TOTALLY
CORRECT.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders list</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 09, 1999
12:20</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: sugar "fib" boxes</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I'm not a "buy and hold" kind of guy, but if I were, sugar
would be near the top of my list so I was a bit surprised on seeing the SM
projections. It was my recollection that SB was near the low end of its
historical range but I had to wait until today to get my long term charts
fired up. The attached chart shows all 25 years of history (continuous
unadjusted), the most striking aspect of which is that most of it has been
down. With a 25 year range of 45 (twice) to 2and a 14 year range of 17-4 it is
clear that the present price of under 7 places it in the lower end of its
historical price range. Not that this precludes further declines but I have to
wonder if the 2 out of 3 (directional) projections pointing to new lows is not
influenced by the historical declines and/or the use of back adjusted
continuous contracts? If SM were instructed to project price from the 85 lows
would it have been equally influenced?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I've studied a fair bit of what you've written about SM and
the basic premise seems sound so I guess I'm asking if there might be
influences at work which might be improperly affecting the
projections?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Clyde Lee
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders list</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999 2:42
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: sugar "fib" boxes</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Can't get use to IE from Netscape. Forgot
attachment.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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