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<DIV><FONT size=2>I'm not a "buy and hold" kind of guy, but if I were, sugar
would be near the top of my list so I was a bit surprised on seeing the SM
projections. It was my recollection that SB was near the low end of its
historical range but I had to wait until today to get my long term charts fired
up. The attached chart shows all 25 years of history (continuous unadjusted),
the most striking aspect of which is that most of it has been down. With a 25
year range of 45 (twice) to 2and a 14 year range of 17-4 it is clear that the
present price of under 7 places it in the lower end of its historical price
range. Not that this precludes further declines but I have to wonder if the 2
out of 3 (directional) projections pointing to new lows is not influenced by the
historical declines and/or the use of back adjusted continuous contracts? If SM
were instructed to project price from the 85 lows would it have been equally
influenced?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I've studied a fair bit of what you've written about SM and
the basic premise seems sound so I guess I'm asking if there might be influences
at work which might be improperly affecting the projections?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Clyde Lee </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders list</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999 2:42
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Fw: sugar "fib" boxes</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Can't get use to IE from Netscape. Forgot
attachment.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxx"; title=clydelee@xxxxxxx>Clyde Lee</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve Karnish</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders list</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999 15:40</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: sugar "fib" boxes</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Got to get my 2 cents in.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Asking SwingMachine to examine ALL swings that fit the
last</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3 turning point pattern numbers, the attached is what we
got.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>One projection is headed for the sky.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Two of the projections just diddle.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The other two projections say NEW LOWS.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>A careful watch to see what path prices are following is in
order.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>NOTE: THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART ! ! ! ! !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Check out the Andrews forks for possible price path
constraints.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde Lee</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999
13:29</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> sugar "fib" boxes</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Trading ranges can, at times, be defined by the
fibonacci retracement areas. Here's some box constructions based on
the retracement levels.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>CCT<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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