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<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My judgement would be that the second chart includes a set of
more likely probabilities. Of course the market will tell us in due course.
While I have a trading interest here, I don't marry my trades, my objectives are
already calculated and my stops are already in the market, so I have no long
term bias on the outcome - I will be out when the market takes me out and the
outcome will neither make me rich nor send me to the poorhouse. I am always
interested in learning anything which might enhance my trading.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Obviously the source data is affecting the projections. I
note a great many gaps in the second SM chart which do not show up on my
weekly unadjusted continuos contract - see attached. T</FONT><FONT
size=2>he use of futures complicates matters due to premium decay, rollover, and
even seasonal variations between delivery months. Like you, I have no interest
in debating the trade-offs of data series construction however I am quite
interested in the application of SM techniques to the analysis of non-financial
contracts. If you share that interest I am more than willing to continue (here
or on the SM list).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The data set I am using consists of daily Pinnacle data joined
on the rollover date without adjustment, then compressed to weekly bars in
SuperCharts. This is about as close as I can get to a rolling
spot contract. I would be more than happy to provide a complete set if it
would assist in furthering what we can learn.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Clyde Lee </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx";
title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders list</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 09, 1999 3:03
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: sugar "fib" boxes</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The following quote from your last post </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><STRONG>there might be influences at work which might be
<U><EM>improperly</EM></U> affecting the projections</STRONG>?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>is what I want to discuss.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>NOTHING improperly affects the projections except bad data
points!!!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The environment which you setup for evaluation of the data
in the futures world DOES have</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>a MAJOR influence in the results.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To show this I have attached a WEEKLY study in which NO
ADJUSTMENT OF PRICES</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>was made at any time. Contracts were simply combined
from week to week and as you</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>can expect the patterns found under such a condition are NOT
the same as those</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>which were found on the original post where prices were BACK
ADJUSTED AND ONLY</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>COVERED DATA FROM 1988. Current data goes back to
1975.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Although in the projections from this dataset do NOT show
NEW LOWS, the projections</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>would make me think twice before making a large long
position.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>YES, THERE CAN BE A DIFFERENCE IN PROJECTIONS DEPENDING
ON</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>EXACTLY HOW FUTURES DATA IS CONFIGURED FOR ANALYSIS.
THIS, HOWEVER,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>IS TRUE OF ALL HISTORICAL STUDIES MADE USING FUTURES
DATA. I DON'T</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>REALLY WANT TO GET INTO AN ARGUMENT WITH ANYONE ABOUT WHAT
IS</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PROPER 'CAUSE I GUESS ABSOLUTELY NOTING IS TOTALLY
CORRECT.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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