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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT
size=3>clyde,</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT
size=3></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=3>does the swing machine assign
probabilities to these projections?</FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=3>i.e., how would these projections be
ranked, </FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT face=Garamond>based on the historical
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond>pattern.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=3>thanks</FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Clyde Lee <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B>Steve
Karnish <<A
href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>>; realtraders
list <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Friday, October 08, 1999 5:24 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: sugar
"fib" boxes<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Got to get my 2 cents in.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Asking SwingMachine to examine ALL swings that fit the
last</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3 turning point pattern numbers, the attached is what we
got.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>One projection is headed for the sky.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Two of the projections just diddle.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The other two projections say NEW LOWS.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>A careful watch to see what path prices are following is
in order.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>NOTE: THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART ! ! ! ! !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Check out the Andrews forks for possible price path
constraints.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde Lee</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999
13:29</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> sugar "fib"
boxes</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Trading ranges can, at times, be defined by
the fibonacci retracement areas. Here's some box constructions
based on the retracement levels.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>CCT<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Oct 08 16:16:18 1999
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Message-ID: <029c01bf11d9$0fc3f860$492a42cf@xxxxxx>
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <0.59e92645.252ea4ed@xxxxxxx><018a01bf113a$c7f104e0$76727bd1@xxxx><37FE0884.7DD390F3@xxxxxxxxx> <4.2.0.58.19991008152504.0095e100@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: sp500
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 1999 16:03:26 -0600
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<DIV><FONT size=2>With apologies for size but this is a tight layout on my left
monitor and no way to shrink it without losing the value .... this shows the
dichotomies existent in the market. The S&P cash shows price at overhead
resistance. The VIX chart shows VIX at short/intermediate sell level (narrower
red). The McClellan Oscillator (using the QCharts NYSE Breadthalizer
Advance-Decline statistics) shows a positive divergence at the bottom
and the oscillator still above the smoothing (red line). I see two possible
outcomes: a) a reversal very early next week in the area of the trendline
confirmed by the McOsc or b) a punch through the trendline which pushes VIX to
the major sell signal level around 18 confirmed by the McOsc dropping below
0.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index - check your data supplier
for symbol</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
G.John Boggio
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx";
title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999 1:31
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: sp500</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT size=3>Realtraders,<BR><BR> In lieu of the recent
posts on the direction of the S&P, I thought I would attach a 60 minute
chart of the S&P Cash. Simply, in light of a quickly declining VIX
and a market that is clearly approaching resistance on the 60 minute time
frame, I do NOT think aggressive buying of equities is the best strategy at
this point in time. Personally, I just picked up some OEX Nov 690 puts
at 15.125.<BR><BR>Hope this helps,<BR>John Boggio<BR><BR><BR>At 10:27 AM
10/8/99 -0600, Earl Adamy wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite type="cite">Caution - just got a VIX alert at 22. The 20-22
area often marks<BR>short/intermediate term tops and 30 often marks
short/intermediate term<BR>bottoms. Tops/bottoms generally occur within a
day or two of hitting these<BR>levels. The speed of the decline from 31+ on
24Sep is indicative of very low<BR>fear levels.<BR><BR>Earl<BR><BR>-----
Original Message -----<BR>From: Ned Markson <cnedgo@xxxxxxxxx><BR>To:
swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx><BR>Cc: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>;
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx><BR>Sent: Friday, October 08, 1999 9:06
AM<BR>Subject: Re: sp500<BR><BR><BR>> In the FWIW department, my midterm
indicator alerted a change in<BR>> market from bearish to bullish last
Friday and turned bullish at<BR>> the close on Monday. I went long on
Monday at the close.<BR>><BR>> Ned Markson<BR>> <A
href="http://users.erols.com/cnedgo/123.2297/fcst61.htm";
eudora="autourl">http://users.erols.com/cnedgo/123.2297/fcst61.htm</A><BR>><BR>>
swp wrote:<BR>> ><BR>> > The cash market is well above the
200-day and traded above the 50-day<BR>> > but did not close there
yesterday. I think those numbers are more<BR>> > important than the
futures which are distorted by the interest rate<BR>> >
component.<BR>> ><BR>> > Steve<BR>> ><BR>> >
---<BR>> > Steven W. Poser, President<BR>> > Poser Global Market
Strategies Inc.<BR>> ><BR>> > url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com/";
eudora="autourl">http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>> > email:
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR>> ><BR>> > Tel: 201-995-0845<BR>> >
Fax: 201-995-0846<BR>> > ----- Original Message -----<BR>> >
From: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx><BR>> > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx><BR>> > Sent: Thursday, October 07,
1999 9:37 PM<BR>> > Subject: sp500<BR>> ><BR>> > >
j: sp500<BR>> > > Date: 10/7/99 9:34:14 PM
Eastern Daylight Time<BR>> > > From: Proffittak<BR>>
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxx<BR>> >
><BR>> > > hello again<BR>> > ><BR>> >
> sp is trying real hard to get over 50 day and 200 day
m/a<BR>> > @1338-1340 area<BR>> > > McCllulen osc
was showing a bullish divergence<BR>> > > and new lows are
decreasing<BR>> > > i suspect we penetrate and
close above 1340 soon<BR>> > > big question then
is: are we on our way to new hi??<BR>> > > i suspect we
get the answer AFTER expiration<BR>> > > (i
personally did an anticipate a trend instead of waiting for
one<BR>> > to<BR>> > > develop and lost 24
points)<BR>> > > happy trading<BR>> > > Ben
>><BR>> > ><BR>> > ></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
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