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Re: [SM] MKT: OEX may not reverse yet

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<DIV><FONT size=2>Same here, exited all calls on Friday since they were 
Octobers.&nbsp; There are some glaring issue and volume divergences that did not 
confirm Friday's rise.&nbsp; Some of them are Jerry Favor's 5 day advancing 
volume, Trin5 made a sell pivot(CODI, change of direction indicator), McOsc of 
volume dipped, even the new highs were less then Thursday and new lows were 
greater than Thursday, RSI of the INDU and EODCV diverged at the 50% 
level.&nbsp; End of day cumulative volume ran into resistance just under the 20 
day moving average.&nbsp; It looked like the brokerage upgrades and downgrades 
Friday and earlier in the week were more for index positioning ahead of 
expiration next week.&nbsp; Since option traders don't live by breadth alone 
they can still make coins in a narrowing mkt but risk gets greater.&nbsp; The 
OEX call open interest centroid is at 710 and there is virtually no put open 
interest above this level.&nbsp; Not sure but I don't recall seeing such a 
skewed put open interest before.&nbsp; Guess that's what pushes the oex up on 
expirations.&nbsp;Public and institutions must be the buyers of puts who are 
virtually guaranteed of not being paid off.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Bob Roeske</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  Clyde Lee </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A 
  href="mailto:boggio@xxxxxxxxx"; title=boggio@xxxxxxxxx>G.John Boggio</A> ; <A 
  href="mailto:swingmachine@xxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=swingmachine@xxxxxxxxxxx>swingmachine</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999 8:54 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [SM] MKT: OEX may not reverse 
  yet</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Last week we had the opportunity of following the OEX along 
  a</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>path throughout the week.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Today, the OEX (30 minute) completed a very short leg 
  pullback</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>from its upward path.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>It is interesting that&nbsp;in the prior pullback, that 
  pullback closely</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>matched the most bullish of the projections and this led to 
  the</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>week long (almost) rally in the index.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>This just completed pullback almost exactly matched the 
  most</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>bullish projection for it and now after the turn it is 
  possible that</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>the OEX will track the most bullish projection to about 720 
  on</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Wednesday.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>The way the projections are structured however I would not 
  bet</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>all the eggs in the basket on the OEX doing that ! ! ! 
  </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I will delay my venture into Puts for a couple of days 
  unless </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>things turn South Monday.&nbsp; I bailed the Calls about 
  3:10 today.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Clyde Lee</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    G.John Boggio 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; 
    title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> ; <A 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 08, 1999 
    14:31</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: sp500</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT size=3>Realtraders,<BR><BR>&nbsp; In lieu of the recent 
    posts on the direction of the S&amp;P, I thought I would attach a 60 minute 
    chart of the S&amp;P Cash.&nbsp; Simply, in light of a quickly declining VIX 
    and a market that is clearly approaching resistance on the 60 minute time 
    frame, I do NOT think aggressive buying of equities is the best strategy at 
    this point in time.&nbsp; Personally, I just picked up some OEX Nov 690 puts 
    at 15.125.<BR><BR>Hope this helps,<BR>John Boggio<BR><BR></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
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