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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yes, probably they bailed out before the big crash,
after the crash bought at rediculusly low prices companies like lifesavers, and,
in the long term made their children billionaires.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:owen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=owen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Owen Davies</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx";
title=ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>'Kohath'</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 7:02 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: How to protect assets</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>>So what did those do in the 30s that were successful? Buying
up all assets<BR>at<BR>>discounted prices? Some did succeed for sure at
making a nice living, so<BR>does<BR>>anyone know what they
did?<BR><BR><BR>Most successful guy I ever heard of (in this regard) stepped in
at the<BR>bottom of the Depression and paid $5000 for full ownership of
the<BR>company that makes LifeSavers.<BR><BR>Owen Davies<BR></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 14:41:42 1999
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Reply-To: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "List" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 09:22:45 -0700
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From time to time, traders actually discuss "real"
trades on this forum (the current sugar debate). This is a really great
"idea" that should be explored on a daily basis. Think of it: a
place where "realtraders" can exchange "real trading" ideas. It's a
concept that could catch on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who monitor real trades in the grain
market:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats
(116.00), & wheat (286.50); (December contracts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/6: Covered and went long oats
(110.50)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn and
262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers long positions tomorrow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has little to do with the crash of '29, Alan
Green"spun", or all those "politicos" conspiring to make my life miserable in
the gold market. But, guess what? Real people are in these real
trades, making real money, not letting the "news" influence their approach, and
they are certainly not sitting around theorizing about the rise and fall of US
economy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek Trading<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 14:41:59 1999
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From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "List" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 09:22:45 -0700
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From time to time, traders actually discuss "real"
trades on this forum (the current sugar debate). This is a really great
"idea" that should be explored on a daily basis. Think of it: a
place where "realtraders" can exchange "real trading" ideas. It's a
concept that could catch on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who monitor real trades in the grain
market:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats
(116.00), & wheat (286.50); (December contracts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/6: Covered and went long oats
(110.50)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn and
262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers long positions tomorrow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has little to do with the crash of '29, Alan
Green"spun", or all those "politicos" conspiring to make my life miserable in
the gold market. But, guess what? Real people are in these real
trades, making real money, not letting the "news" influence their approach, and
they are certainly not sitting around theorizing about the rise and fall of US
economy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek Trading<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 14:41:38 1999
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Date: Wed, 06 Oct 1999 12:31:14 -0400
From: Daniel Goncharoff <Daniel.Goncharoff@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: BruceB <bruceb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
CC: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>,
RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: definition of "speculation" and "bubble
References: <01BF0F10.C8E6DE50.ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx> <030a01bf0f2e$d4fa9f10$be2a42cf@xxxxxx> <067e01bf0fa0$29f26a40$48dfcea7@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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<html>
Bubbles do not require margin or borrowed money. The most clasic bubble
of all, tulip-mania, burst naturally through the breeding of more rare
tulips, making them less rare, and less valuable.
<p>Today's bubble in the stock prices of dot-coms, creating billion dollar
valuations for companies that may never turn at a profit, but having nothing
to do with leverage, will also die a slow death as the substantial quantities
of shares still held by insiders come onto the market.
<p>Regards
<br>DanG
<p><i>I think most</i>
<br><i>people (myself included) define these terms as meaning asset prices
that</i>
<br><i>have been artificially inflated through the use of margined or borrowed</i>
<br><i>money. If you agree to that definition, then there is simply
no evidence</i>
<br><i>for your claim. Over the past 5 years (since the stock market
first began</i>
<br><i>to take off), the amount of stock purchased on margin as a percentage
of all</i>
<br><i>stock outstanding has actually FALLEN. In absolute terms,
the figure has</i>
<br><i>grown significantly, but as a percentage of the whole market, it's
down.</i>
<br><i>Where's the bubble?</i><i></i>
<p><i>Bruce</i></html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 14:41:54 1999
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <004501bf1003$73bee5a0$6c637dc7@xxxxxx> <013f01bf1014$04a55e40$b24a03cf@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: How to protect assets
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 10:45:05 -0600
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Deep pockets, a strong sense of value, and very large kahunas
are absolute necessities for buying up cheap assets in a crash. We've all heard
of the genius' who bought assets for 10 cents on the dollar but we never hear of
the dead and buried who attempted to catch the falling market and
missed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Kohath
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:owen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=owen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Owen Davies</A> ; <A
href="mailto:ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx";
title=ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 10:01
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: How to protect assets</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yes, probably they bailed out before the big
crash, after the crash bought at rediculusly low prices companies like
lifesavers, and, in the long term made their children
billionaires.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:owen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=owen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Owen Davies</A>
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx";
title=ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>'Kohath'</A> ;
<A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 7:02 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: How to protect assets</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>>So what did those do in the 30s that were successful?
Buying up all assets<BR>at<BR>>discounted prices? Some did succeed for sure
at making a nice living, so<BR>does<BR>>anyone know what they
did?<BR><BR><BR>Most successful guy I ever heard of (in this regard) stepped
in at the<BR>bottom of the Depression and paid $5000 for full ownership of
the<BR>company that makes LifeSavers.<BR><BR>Owen
Davies<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 14:42:07 1999
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From: "Gary Fritz" <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 10:56:25 -0600
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Subject: Re: How to protect assets
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Earl wrote:
> I have studied this off and on in some detail over the past few
> years and my most educated conclusion is that intermediate to long
> term US treasuries should provide the greatest safety and highest
> return.
I didn't expect that answer AT ALL. So you feel the rates are likely
to go way down, thus increasing value of the bonds? And you expect
that increase to outweigh the losses to inflation or other attacks on
the dollar's value?
I don't know what to expect on this. Rates up or down, inflation or
deflation, I really don't have a good feel for which way it is likely
to go when everything goes boom. I wish I understood the mechanics
better. This is one time when this technical trader wishes he had a
better fundamental background.
"BruceB" <bruceb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Just keep in mind that in both the 30's and in Japan it was
> nominal rates that fell. You might want to take into account what
> real rates did during those periods in making your decision...
I assume by this you mean that inflation sapped any gains? Would you
expand on your answer, please?
I think this topic concerns all of us, and I'm very interested in
pursuing the thread further. Private emails from others indicate I'm
not the only one. I hope anyone else who feels they have a good
handle on the likely scenarios and/or the best financial survival
plans will share it with us. Thanks!
Gary
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