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>From: "charleydan" <charleydan1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>, "'Kohath'" <kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: How to protect assets
>Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 08:08:09 -0600
>
A friend told me once to get a piece of land with a creek on it. You can put
a generator in the creek and have electricity. He also said to buy some gold
and silver coins. If things got bad paper money could be worthless.
I read in the paper today that the banks are selling lots of gold. Some
people walk out with $20,000.00 gold bars in their briefcases.
>From a trading point of view how about long gold and short the s&p500. long
gold is a no brainer but long s&p puts is a little harder to time or how
about shorting the banks.
I just read somewhere that in a depression stocks and realestate drop
90%.....
>Well, my dad and grandfather lived on a farm at the time, and most of the
>people I have talked to in that era lived in a farm communities, and which
>ones come out smelling like a rose.
>
>Those that had little or no debt, and those that had cash stashed.
>
>Those that had debt, were called due and few survived and those that did
>were struggling for long time to come. Because the debt never changed in
>value. Even tho the income went down the debt was the same. Those that
>didn't and had cash bought land and businesses at ridiculously fire sale
>prices. They did not make it big immediately, but when the economy took
>off
>they zoomed holding to this many assets acquired thru low prices.
>
>charley
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: 'Kohath' <kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; Earl Adamy
><eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 3:11 AM
>Subject: AW: How to protect assets
>
>
> > So what did those do in the 30s that were successful? Buying up all
>assets
>at
> > discounted prices? Some did succeed for sure at making a nice living, so
>does
> > anyone know what they did?
> >
> > Gwenn
> >
> > | -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> > | Von: Kohath [SMTP:kohath@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > | Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 7:39 PM
> > | An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx; Earl Adamy
> > | Betreff: Re: How to protect assets
> > |
> > | As for making a living trading, I have to wonder -
> > | stock and commodity exchange activity in the 30's all but dried up
>resulting
> > | in little or no liquidity.
> > |
> > | How true, to make money trading you need volitility. To get volitility
>you
> > | need buyers and sellers. To get buyers and sellers you need
>liquidity.
>If
> > | the liquidity is not there, no buyers, if no buyers, no sellers,
>therefore
> > | no liquidity, therefore no volitility, therefore no trading vehicle to
>make
> > | money. If there is a big pop, and yes, this bubble is the biggest so
>far so
> > | there should be an awful loud bang, then I would submit that traders,
>for
> > | the most part, will cease to exist until conditions improve.
> > | Matt
> > |
> > | ----- Original Message -----
> > | From: Earl Adamy
> > | To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> > | Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 9:04 AM
> > | Subject: Re: How to protect assets
> > |
> > |
> > | I have studied this off and on in some detail over the past few years
>and my
> > | most educated conclusion is that intermediate to long term US
>treasuries
> > | should provide the greatest safety and highest return. This was true
>in
>the
> > | early '30s and it was true more recently in Japan - in both cases long
>term
> > | rates were driven to near zero levels by lack of credit demand and
> > | government efforts to stimulate the economy. Another avenue is
>carefully
> > | selected non-US currencies (I would favor stable European currencies)
> > | however one must not lose sight of the fact that a bursting of the US
>bubble
> > | is going to have world-wide consequences because of a) loss of the
>world's
> > | most voracious consumers and b) difficulty in actually repatriating
>the
> > | debts accumulated by the huge US trade and balance of payments
>deficits.
>The
> > | most likely government action would be to crank up the printing
>presses
>and
> > | print loads of money thereby devaluing all US domestic and foreign
>debt
>and
> > | the US$ - keep in mind that the greatest portion of US external debt
>is
>held
> > | by Japan and China. Historically, precious metals have not proven to
>be
>a
> > | strong hedge during depressions or even major recessions although
>price
> > | spikes in gold and gold stocks often precede a major decline in
>equities
>so
> > | they are a good leading indicator of trouble.
> > |
> > | The use of treasuries for hedging the equity markets has been
>complicated by
> > | the recent dramatic increases in interest rates resulting in loss of
>both
> > | income and principal. Overall, the bursting of the bubble is not a
>pretty
> > | sight to contemplate! As for making a living trading, I have to wonder
>-
> > | stock and commodity exchange activity in the 30's all but dried up
>resulting
> > | in little or no liquidity.
> > |
> > | Earl
> > |
> > | ----- Original Message -----
> > | From: Gary Fritz <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
> > | To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > | Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 1999 8:52 AM
> > | Subject: How to protect assets
> > |
> > |
> > | > Earl wrote:
> > | > > When the bubble does burst, as it inevitably will, the retirement
> > | > > savings and pension plans of at least two generations will be
> > | > > placed in jeopardy. Not only are these generations at risk of
> > | > > losing their financial independence, but government tax coffers
> > | > > shorn of the stock market tax bonanza will be incapable of
> > | > > providing a safety net. Further, US workers will wake up to find
> > | > > that few are in a position to support the huge US service economy
> > | > > and that there are few manufacturing jobs remaining. In short,
>what
> > | > > happened in Japan in 1989 won't begin to compare to what will
> > | > > happen in the US when the bubble bursts.
> > | >
> > | > A very sobering prospect, indeed.
> > | >
> > | > I have wondered about the best way to protect one's assets against
> > | > this kind of scenario. I don't have any idea how soon or how badly
> > | > it's going to blow, but I agree with Earl that some kind of disaster
> > | > is inevitable.
> > | >
> > | > As traders, it's part of our job to make sure we protect our assets.
> > | > It does us little good to make lots of dollars in the market if
>those
> > | > dollars are worthless.
> > | >
> > | > I think this would be a good topic of discussion. It's probably of
> > | > most interest to U.S. traders, since it's our currency and our
> > | > economy that have been so mismanaged and are likely to fall. But
> > | > other countries are likely to suffer from the collapse as well, so
> > | > all of us may benefit from the ideas.
> > | >
> > | > So: how should a trader protect his assets and his financial
>future?
> > | >
> > | > I think we're fortunate in that we should be able to continue to
>earn
> > | > a living. No one is going to lay us off, and our employers will not
> > | > go bankrupt. (I hope, anyway, since our employers is us. :-) As
> > | > long as we can adjust our trading style to the new financial
> > | > conditions we *should* be able to continue to pay the bills. We
> > | > should probably be careful not to have too much money tied up at any
> > | > one brokerage, since I imagine some of them are going to crack up
> > | > when the fertilizer hits the fan.
> > | >
> > | > But what about our savings, our retirement plans, etc? Do we buy a
> > | > stash of Krugerrands and gold eagles and bury them in the garden?
>Do
> > | > we have to move our funds into SF-denominated Swiss accounts to
> > | > protect them from a dollar debacle? How do we protect their value?
> > | >
> > | > And what of non-traders? My parents are in their 70's and asked me
> > | > just this weekend how they should protect their modest retirement
> > | > funds. I wasn't quite sure what to tell them but said I would think
> > | > about it. Any suggestions?
> > | >
> > | > Thanks,
> > | > Gary
> > | >
> > |
> > |
> > | << Datei: ATT00004.html >>
>
>
>
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