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> I have studied this off and on in some detail over the past few years and
my
> most educated conclusion is that intermediate to long term US treasuries
> should provide the greatest safety and highest return. This was true in
the
> early '30s and it was true more recently in Japan - in both cases long
term
> rates were driven to near zero levels by lack of credit demand and
> government efforts to stimulate the economy.
Just keep in mind that in both the 30's and in Japan it was nominal rates
that fell. You might want to take into account what real rates did during
those periods in making your decision...
Bruce
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