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Check the spreads, they should at or close to value. Ira
<p>RAY RAFFURTY wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE><style></style>
Hi RT's, This morning on CNBC,
Arch Crawford predicted a 1000 (yes 1000) point drop in the market some
time in the next two weeks. I don't follow astrology, but do respect
Mr. Crawford (and Norman). If a 1000 Dow points is about equal to
about 100 OEX points and the OEX at about 675, 100 points would take it
to 575. I checked a Sept 580 OEX Put, it is at 2.5. This surprised
the hell out of me since I expected it to be about 1/2. The Aug 580
Put is at 3/16, but it expires on 8/20/99 and might expire before the predicted
move. Looks like someone is hedging or speculating on his prediction.
Good luck and good trading,
Ray Raffurty</blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Aug 11 18:41:38 1999
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Message-ID: <028c01bee457$4739a380$48dfcea7@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: "BruceB" <bruceb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "ROBERT ROESKE" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "RAY RAFFURTY" <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>,
"Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <006901bee436$809a10e0$8295b7ce@xxxxxxx> <020801bee43f$03317cc0$5927fea9@xxx>
Subject: Re: RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt prediction
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 20:11:41 -0400
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<DIV>I'm pretty sure Arch said he was expecting a 1000 point drop in a
<STRONG>single trading day </STRONG>within the next two weeks. That's a
pretty bold statement no matter how you slice it...</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Bruce</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>ROBERT
ROESKE</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:rrraff@xxxxxxxx";
title=rrraff@xxxxxxxx>RAY RAFFURTY</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 11, 1999 5:18
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt
prediction</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Yes, Arch said a 1000 point drop, but he did not say
from what level. The last total eclipse saw a 1000 pt or 1500 pt rally
first. So, let's vote for a rally into expiration week and then a 1000
point drop after that or on expiration day for max leverage back to
breakeven. On another note, there is a rumor that Greenspan may
delay the rate rise because a major bank is in deep doodoo over being on the
wrong side of bonds.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BobR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
RAY RAFFURTY
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 11, 1999 1:17
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt
prediction</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi RT's,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>This morning on CNBC, Arch Crawford predicted a 1000 (yes 1000) point
drop in the market some time in the next two weeks. I don't follow
astrology, but do respect Mr. Crawford (and Norman). If a 1000 Dow
points is about equal to about 100 OEX points and the OEX at about 675, 100
points would take it to 575. I checked a Sept 580 OEX Put, it is at
2.5. This surprised the hell out of me since I expected it to be about
1/2. The Aug 580 Put is at 3/16, but it expires on 8/20/99 and might
expire before the predicted move.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Looks like someone is hedging or speculating on his prediction.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
Good luck and good trading,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> Ray
Raffurty</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Aug 11 19:05:29 1999
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Reply-To: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Ira Tunik" <ist@xxxxxx>, "RAY RAFFURTY" <rrraff@xxxxxxxx>
Cc: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <006901bee436$809a10e0$8295b7ce@xxxxxxx> <37B20169.28841CFF@xxxxxx>
Subject: Re: RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt prediction
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 20:47:38 -0400
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Ray - I heard somebody say that Arch expects stocks to bottom
by August 19, at least for the short term. So at 3/16ths, you could do pretty
well. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My work shows SPX (cash S&P 500) falling into mid-1200s,
with risk even to 1170, though I do not know if it will be in a day. 1170 would
be more than 1000 Dow points from here if the Dow starts falling at the same
percent rate as the S&P 500.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Steve</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>P.S. - Though Ira and I have often disagreed on this forum, he
has always been open with his thoughts and his comments are worth reading and
typically add value (except when he disagrees with me - lol).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>---<BR>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market Strategies
Inc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com";>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>email: <A
href="mailto:swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Ira Tunik </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:rrraff@xxxxxxxx";
title=rrraff@xxxxxxxx>RAY RAFFURTY</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> ; <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 11, 1999 7:04
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt
prediction</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Check the spreads, they should at or close to value. Ira
<P>RAY RAFFURTY wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">
<STYLE></STYLE>
Hi RT's, This morning on CNBC, Arch Crawford predicted a 1000 (yes
1000) point drop in the market some time in the next two weeks. I
don't follow astrology, but do respect Mr. Crawford (and Norman). If a
1000 Dow points is about equal to about 100 OEX points and the OEX at about
675, 100 points would take it to 575. I checked a Sept 580 OEX Put, it
is at 2.5. This surprised the hell out of me since I expected it to be
about 1/2. The Aug 580 Put is at 3/16, but it expires on 8/20/99 and
might expire before the predicted move. Looks like someone is hedging
or speculating on his
prediction.
Good luck and good
trading,
Ray Raffurty</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Aug 11 20:16:23 1999
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Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 21:07:34 -0400
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
From: "G. Dunn" <gjbkdunn@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: GEN: Day Trading Report - opinion
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Status:
I don't day trade. I have no axe to grind one way or the other.
After seeing the show on C-SPAN I got some perspective on the report and I
heard what the conclusions about the report were.
The issue was that the Day Trading companies have gotten complaints from
customers. The people doing the study were concerned that the general
public was not giveing the trueth in the Day Trading Companies advertising.
The concern was that the Day Trading Companies were making claims of
success that were not true.
The recomendations that came from the study were (this is my wording not
theirs).
Don't hype the results and suck in a lot of people who don't have the money
to loose.
Screen the people you let Day trade better. i.e. make sure they have the
financial where with all to deal with daytrading. Don't let people trade
when they have lost too much and can't meet the financial requirements.
They also found some rather dubious methods of lending money from one
client to another to keep the clients trading. Not unlike a pyramid or
ponzi scam.
They specifically said they are not taking a position on what methods
people use to trade or invest.
The individuals involved knew that this was a small initial study
(performed by a double degreed statistician who has also done trading).
They welcomed and encouraged other studies be conducted. They were
concerned by customer complaints so they performed an initial study.
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