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Arch Crawford's 1000pt prediction



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<DIV>Hi RT's,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>This morning on CNBC, Arch Crawford predicted a 1000 (yes 1000) point drop 
in the market some time in the next two weeks.&nbsp; I don't follow astrology, 
but do respect Mr. Crawford (and Norman).&nbsp; If a 1000 Dow points is about 
equal to about 100 OEX points and the OEX at about 675, 100 points would take it 
to 575.&nbsp; I checked a Sept 580 OEX Put, it is at 2.5.&nbsp; This surprised 
the hell out of me since I expected it to be about 1/2.&nbsp; The Aug 580 Put is 
at 3/16, but it expires on 8/20/99 and might expire before the predicted 
move.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Looks like someone is hedging or speculating on his prediction.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Good luck and good trading,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Ray 
Raffurty</DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Aug 11 15:15:29 1999
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From: "comdytrd" <comdytrd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: FUT:   Demise of Soes Trading Bucket Shops
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 16:47:24 -0400
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Status:   

SLK for one just pulled the plug  on the practice of  daytrading firms
loaning margin call money to traders (they did so by introducing and setting
up loan arrangements with investors...know as "guidos" ).

The end of the this arrangement (apparently illegal all along but never
enforced until the recent publicity) will stop these bucket shops from
extracting the net worths of undercapitalized "newbies"....  Unfortunately
I've seen dozens of examples.  One friend with a net worth of $5000 was
allowed to trade $500,000 worth of stock, generating massive commissions.
He is now debit and facing bankruptcy.

Many of you seem to abhor government regulation, but the lack of enforcement
of restrictions already on the books led in large part to the abuses we have
witness in the SOES/daytrading "industry" in my opinion.

Best,

Michael