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Re: RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt prediction



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<DIV><FONT size=2>Yes,&nbsp;Arch said a 1000 point drop, but he did not say from 
what level.&nbsp; The last total eclipse saw a 1000 pt or 1500 pt rally 
first.&nbsp; So, let's vote for a rally into expiration week and then a 1000 
point drop after that or on expiration day for max leverage back to 
breakeven.&nbsp; On another note,&nbsp;there is a rumor that Greenspan may delay 
the rate rise because a major bank is in deep doodoo over being on the wrong 
side of bonds.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BobR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  RAY RAFFURTY </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Real 
  Traders</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real 
  Traders</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 11, 1999 1:17 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RT_Arch Crawford's 1000pt 
  prediction</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>Hi RT's,</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>This morning on CNBC, Arch Crawford predicted a 1000 (yes 1000) point 
  drop in the market some time in the next two weeks.&nbsp; I don't follow 
  astrology, but do respect Mr. Crawford (and Norman).&nbsp; If a 1000 Dow 
  points is about equal to about 100 OEX points and the OEX at about 675, 100 
  points would take it to 575.&nbsp; I checked a Sept 580 OEX Put, it is at 
  2.5.&nbsp; This surprised the hell out of me since I expected it to be about 
  1/2.&nbsp; The Aug 580 Put is at 3/16, but it expires on 8/20/99 and might 
  expire before the predicted move.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Looks like someone is hedging or speculating on his prediction.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Good luck and good trading,</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Ray 
  Raffurty</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Aug 11 15:35:26 1999
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Message-ID: <37B1EBBD.30F78581@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 14:31:58 -0700
From: "Norman E. Phair" <ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
CC: BrentinUtahsDixie <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
        "Group, Real Traders 2000" <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
        realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx, Proffittak@xxxxxxx
Subject: Re: sep bonds congratulation to ira
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Status:   

John:

I don't know where you learned your understanding of
how the english language is interpreted but neither
Brent or myself was poking fun at Ira.  His name was
mot mentioned, Brent had an idea to collect opinions 
in a data base of sorts so we could keep track of the
projections.  I nominated Brent to work on this project
since I thought it was a good idea.  I suggest you
re-read the posts.

Norman E. 

John Cappello wrote:
> 
> Have to say this.Picky-Picky.Ira has made good calls in the past and
> what is wrong with an occasional public thanks.He's been panned enough
> to deserve at least that.
> 
> John
> 
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: "Norman E. Phair" <ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: sep bonds congratulation to ira
> Date: 08/11/1999 11:48am
> 
> Brent:
> 
> This is a good idea.  I nominate you to take charge of
> this  project.
> All in favor please vote yes. Or vote no to object.
> 
> Norman E,
> 
> BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> >
> > Yes congrats! Maybe we should have all Real Traders post their
> projections
> > and or sentiment on anything that they trade to some data base and
> > re-distribute it to the group:-)
> >
> > Brent
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Wednesday, August 11, 1999 7:57 AM
> > Subject: sep bonds congratulation to ira
> >
> > >good morning
> > >
> > >if you recall ira's  predction of  113
> > >i took the trade when  it was @  115 09
> > >tok proffitts  yesterday
> > >happy trading
> > >Ben
> > >