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I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an interesting solicitation
for a gambling system. I love to read the promises. This one
had something interesting in it that many of us have tried to express to
the new traders. It struck me that this particular paragraph applied
to trading as much as to horse racing and other bets of chance.
<p>"Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities
which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results.
Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against
the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the
percentages are against them. This is not always correct, because
there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one <b><font size=+1>positive!</font></b>
Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about
so called gambling games. When in fact, almost all Casino games and
Horse racing, have a positive probability also. When this <b><font size=+1>Positive
Probability</font></b> is greater than the minus probability in a particular
game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the
long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game
in which three factors must be present... The player is not required
to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can change
the amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet
what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they
want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"
<p>For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players
substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options.
Not a bad analogy.
<p>The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist.
...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling...
I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting. Ira.</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri May 07 22:43:19 1999
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Date: Sat, 08 May 1999 00:15:02 -0500
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From: THE DOCTOR <droex@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Probabilities
References: <3733BC62.28257574@xxxxxx>
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There was a book written some years back called "RACETRACK BETTING" the
authors were Adams and Quant, both professors(at Princeton I believe).
It was a discussion of paramutual betting and the concept of how to bet
and conditional probability. It quickly became "required" reading
for many of the best traders at CBOE. I would strongly encourage
anyone really serious about trading to get a copy and really understand
it(I haven't checked amazon.com to see if it still in print). This
is a strong statement , but of the handful of people I know who trade for
a living and claim to have understood it ......All have accumulated net
worth's in a range that most people would envy.
<P>I would strongly encourage anyone really interested in understanding
conditional probability and option trading to read it.
<P>Ira wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>
I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an
interesting solicitation for a gambling system. I love to read the
promises. This one had something interesting in it that many of us
have tried to express to the new traders. It struck me that this
particular paragraph applied to trading as much as to horse racing and
other bets of chance.
<P>"Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities
which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results.
Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against
the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the
percentages are against them. This is not always correct, because
there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one <B><FONT SIZE=+1>positive!</FONT></B>
Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about
so called gambling games. When in fact, almost all Casino games and
Horse racing, have a positive probability also. When this <B><FONT SIZE=+1>Positive
Probability</FONT></B> is greater than the minus probability in a particular
game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the
long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game
in which three factors must be present... The player is not required
to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can change
the amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet
what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they
want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"
<P>For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players
substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options.
Not a bad analogy.
<P>The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist.
...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling...
I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting. Ira.</BLOCKQUOTE>
</HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri May 07 22:43:23 1999
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Date: Sat, 08 May 1999 00:20:10 -0500
Reply-To: droex@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: THE DOCTOR <droex@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [Fwd: Probabilities]
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I just checked with AMAZON and the book is out of print. If you can find one I would still go for it.
THE DOCTOR wrote:
> There was a book written some years back called "RACETRACK BETTING" the authors were Adams and Quant, both professors(at Princeton I believe). It was a discussion of paramutual betting and the concept of how to bet and conditional probability. It quickly became "required" reading for many of the best traders at CBOE. I would strongly encourage anyone really serious about trading to get a copy and really understand it(I haven't checked amazon.com to see if it still in print). This is a strong statement , but of the handful of people I know who trade for a living and claim to have understood it ......All have accumulated net worth's in a range that most people would envy.
>
> I would strongly encourage anyone really interested in understanding conditional probability and option trading to read it.
>
> Ira wrote:
>
> > I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an interesting solicitation for a gambling system. I love to read the promises. This one had something interesting in it that many of us have tried to express to the new traders. It struck me that this particular paragraph applied to trading as much as to horse racing and other bets of chance.
> >
> > "Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results. Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the percentages are against them. This is not always correct, because there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one positive! Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about so called gambling games. When in fact, almost all Casino games and Horse racing, have a positive probability also. When this Positive Probability is greater than the minus probability in a particular game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game in which three factors must be present... The player is not required to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can chang!
e the
> > amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"
> >
> > For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options. Not a bad analogy.
> >
> > The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist. ...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling... I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting. Ira.
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