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There is also the excellent "Gaming the Market" by Ron Shelton (available
at Barnes & Noble) which specifically applies gaming theory to market
trading in a very practical way.
<P>--
<BR> ,-._|\ Richard
<BR> / Oz \
<BR> \_,--.x/
<BR> v
<BR>
<BR>
<P>THE DOCTOR wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE> There was a book written some years back called
"RACETRACK BETTING" the authors were Adams and Quant, both professors(at
Princeton I believe). It was a discussion of paramutual betting and
the concept of how to bet and conditional probability. It quickly
became "required" reading for many of the best traders at CBOE. I
would strongly encourage anyone really serious about trading to get a copy
and really understand it(I haven't checked amazon.com to see if it still
in print). This is a strong statement , but of the handful of people
I know who trade for a living and claim to have understood it ......All
have accumulated net worth's in a range that most people would envy.
<P>I would strongly encourage anyone really interested in understanding
conditional probability and option trading to read it.
<P>Ira wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an
interesting solicitation for a gambling system. I love to read the
promises. This one had something interesting in it that many of us
have tried to express to the new traders. It struck me that this
particular paragraph applied to trading as much as to horse racing and
other bets of chance.
<P>"Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities
which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results.
Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against
the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the
percentages are against them. This is not always correct, because
there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one <B><FONT SIZE=+1>positive!</FONT></B>
Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about
so called gambling games. When in fact, almost all Casino games and
Horse racing, have a positive probability also. When this <B><FONT SIZE=+1>Positive
Probability</FONT></B> is greater than the minus probability in a particular
game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the
long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game
in which three factors must be present... The player is not required
to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can change
the amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet
what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they
want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"
<P>For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players
substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options.
Not a bad analogy.
<P>The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist.
...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling...
I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting. Ira.</BLOCKQUOTE>
</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BR>
<P> </HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat May 08 15:16:42 1999
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Date: Sat, 08 May 1999 17:56:14 -0700
Reply-To: nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Mini paper trading
References: <199905060702.AAA08271@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> <37334BF1.3DFE622@xxxxxxx> <3.0.5.32.19990508161548.0126dc20@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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David Cicia wrote:
> At 02:29 AM 5/8/99 -0700, nwinski wrote:
> >
> I highly recommend that you chart your daily equity.
> >After a while,
> >you will be amazed to find what you can deduce about your future profit
> and losses.
> >In regard to your equity, you will be able to determine support and
> resistance areas,
> >Elliott wave patterns, Fibonacci retracements, and sometimes you will be
> able to
> >forecast market behavior based on the patterns you see on your own equity
> chart. It
> >is an excellent money management tool and sometimes can be used to confirm
> market
> >signals. I have read articles by several top traders who are keen on using
> this tool.
> >
>
> Norm,
>
> In relation to this, since you are an astrologer, I am sure you have
> considered also charting your own horoscope with progressions and transits
> to give you an idea of when it might be good for you to trade or to hold
> back. Do you do this, and if so, would you share some insights into what to
> look for?
>
> David Cicia,
I don't think I should get into a highly technical discussion on how
to interpret planetary indications based on a natal chart on this forum.. Such
a discussion would bore most, if they could understand it, and beyond
comprehension for all but a few who are Astro savvy. Now, to answer your
question, I usually only look at transits to my own chart. I keep in mind when
the planets are indicating difficult times, more positive times, and most
important for me is to know when I am most likely to get over confident. It is
overconfidence that I have found to be my achiles heel. It is very helpful to
me to know when to work on keeping my feet well grounded.
Regards,
Norman
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