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Re: Probabilities



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There is also the excellent "Gaming the Market" by Ron Shelton (available
at Barnes &amp; Noble) which specifically applies gaming theory to market
trading in a very practical way.

<P>--
<BR>&nbsp; ,-._|\&nbsp; Richard
<BR>&nbsp;/&nbsp; Oz&nbsp; \
<BR>&nbsp;\_,--.x/
<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; v
<BR>&nbsp;
<BR>&nbsp;

<P>THE DOCTOR wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>&nbsp;There was a book written some years back called
"RACETRACK BETTING" the authors were Adams and Quant, both professors(at
Princeton I believe).&nbsp; It was a discussion of paramutual betting and
the concept of how to bet and conditional probability.&nbsp; It quickly
became "required" reading for many of the best traders at CBOE.&nbsp; I
would strongly encourage anyone really serious about trading to get a copy
and really understand it(I haven't checked amazon.com to see if it still
in print).&nbsp; This is a strong statement , but of the handful of people
I know who trade for a living and claim to have understood it ......All
have accumulated net worth's in a range that most people would envy.

<P>I would strongly encourage anyone really interested in understanding
conditional probability and option trading to read it.

<P>Ira wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an
interesting solicitation for a gambling system.&nbsp; I love to read the
promises.&nbsp; This one had something interesting in it that many of us
have tried to express to the new traders.&nbsp; It struck me that this
particular paragraph applied to trading as much as to horse racing and
other bets of chance.

<P>"Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities
which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results.&nbsp;
Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against
the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the
percentages are against them.&nbsp; This is not always correct, because
there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one <B><FONT SIZE=+1>positive!</FONT></B>&nbsp;
Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about
so called gambling games.&nbsp; When in fact, almost all Casino games and
Horse racing, have a positive probability also.&nbsp; When this <B><FONT SIZE=+1>Positive
Probability</FONT></B> is greater than the minus probability in a particular
game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the
long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game
in which three factors must be present...&nbsp; The player is not required
to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can change
the amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet
what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they
want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"

<P>For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players
substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options.&nbsp;
Not a bad analogy.

<P>The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist.
...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling...&nbsp;
I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting.&nbsp; Ira.</BLOCKQUOTE>
</BLOCKQUOTE>
&nbsp;
<BR>&nbsp;

<P>&nbsp;</HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat May 08 15:16:42 1999
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Date: Sat, 08 May 1999 17:56:14 -0700
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From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Mini paper trading
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David Cicia wrote:

> At 02:29 AM 5/8/99 -0700, nwinski wrote:
> >
>  I highly recommend that you chart your daily equity.
> >After a while,
> >you will be amazed to find what you can deduce about your future profit
> and losses.
> >In regard to your equity, you will be able to determine support and
> resistance areas,
> >Elliott wave patterns, Fibonacci retracements, and sometimes you will be
> able to
> >forecast market behavior based on the patterns you see on your own equity
> chart. It
> >is an excellent money management tool and sometimes can be used to confirm
> market
> >signals. I have read articles by several top traders who are keen on using
> this tool.
> >
>
> Norm,
>
> In relation to this, since you are an astrologer, I am sure you have
> considered also charting your own horoscope with progressions and transits
> to give you an idea of when  it might be good for you to trade or to hold
> back. Do you do this, and if so, would you share some insights into what to
> look for?
>
> David Cicia,

         I don't think I should get into a highly technical discussion on how
to interpret planetary indications based on a natal chart on this forum.. Such
a discussion would bore most, if they could understand it, and beyond
comprehension for all but a few who are Astro savvy. Now, to answer your
question, I usually only look at transits to my own chart. I keep in mind when
the planets are indicating difficult times, more positive times, and most
important for me is to know when I am most likely to get over confident. It is
overconfidence that I have found to be my achiles heel. It is very helpful to
me to know when to work on keeping my feet well grounded.

Regards,

Norman