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There was a book I read on overlays in betting that was also very
helpful in options traders. I no longer have the book and can't remember
the author. Ira.
<p>THE DOCTOR wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>There was a book written some years back called "RACETRACK
BETTING" the authors were Adams and Quant, both professors(at Princeton
I believe). It was a discussion of paramutual betting and the concept
of how to bet and conditional probability. It quickly became "required"
reading for many of the best traders at CBOE. I would strongly encourage
anyone really serious about trading to get a copy and really understand
it(I haven't checked amazon.com to see if it still in print). This
is a strong statement , but of the handful of people I know who trade for
a living and claim to have understood it ......All have accumulated net
worth's in a range that most people would envy.
<p>I would strongly encourage anyone really interested in understanding
conditional probability and option trading to read it.
<p>Ira wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>I am on everyone's mailing list and I received an
interesting solicitation for a gambling system. I love to read the
promises. This one had something interesting in it that many of us
have tried to express to the new traders. It struck me that this
particular paragraph applied to trading as much as to horse racing and
other bets of chance.
<p>"Each wagering game, including horse racing, has a set of probabilities
which govern the possible outcome of any given series of results.
Most believe those games with a "minus" probability ( a House edge against
the player), cannot be beaten over an extended period of time because the
percentages are against them. This is not always correct, because
there are two sets of probabilities, one minus and one <b><font size=+1>positive!</font></b>
Everyone else only uses the minus probabilities to prove their point about
so called gambling games. When in fact, almost all Casino games and
Horse racing, have a positive probability also. When this <b><font size=+1>Positive
Probability</font></b> is greater than the minus probability in a particular
game, the game can be beaten...in fact... the game must be beaten in the
long run!!!! A game with a positive probability would be any wager game
in which three factors must be present... The player is not required
to play constantly, ( the house must always play)... the player can change
the amount of the wagers whenever they wish, ( the house must always bet
what ever the player wagers).. The player can quit playing whenever they
want ( the house must be ready to play whenever players want to)"
<p>For Casino substitute Exchange. For House Substitute Locals. For players
substitute traders. Games of chance substitute futures, stock or options.
Not a bad analogy.
<p>The claim is that after 12 years of study by a renowned Swiss scientist.
...... who has proven, without a doubt...there is no gambling...
I only posted this for reference. I found it interesting. Ira.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sat May 08 09:57:25 1999
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Date: Sat, 8 May 1999 09:55:39 -0600
Reply-To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: MKT Nikkei
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The Nikkei's second impulse wave has reached a 162% expansion of the first
wave and closed above the July 98 pivot high (PH preceding the final
decline) which provides initial confirmation that a rally of major
significance is underway. This level should provide some important
resistance. A correction to the 15600 area (holding above the Nov PH at
17000would not be unreasonable before a third impulse wave takes the Nikkei
higher, perhaps to the 20,000. Asian investors should monitor Yen/Dollar for
signs of serious deterioration, especially considering the rising interest
rates in the US.
Earl
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