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RealTraders,
In an effort to propose a slightly different slant to Terry's judgment of
the value of the Bradley indicator, an observation first seems in order. The
Bradley M suggested Oct. 1 to watch for a change in direction for the
stockmarket, and the DJIA close as of that date has yet to be exceeded on the
down side. On the contrary, it marked the beginning of a very healthy rally
for the DJIA, (basis end of day).
Terry made a very important observation that we should "trade the truth,"
and this should be a rallying cry for all here. There is a fundamental
difference of opinion on how
these Bradley dates should be viewed, in that the crucial value they provide
is as markers for a possible change in trend; not a clear indication of the
direction or magnitude going into the date. Of course, the Bradley should not
be the sole basis for a trade, either.
It has been suggested to utilize standard indicators, macd, cci, etc., in
order to evaluate which way, and when, to go with the trade. Not a preferred
suggestion, and there is much good to be said about Terry's suggestion to look
at previous 61.8% retracements of overbalanced moves.
It is a given, the Bradley has definite limitations. The dates can be
off 2-4 days from the actual pivot. There is no "logical" reason to expect a
change in trend; nothing we can hang our hats on. On the other hand, it is a
tool which few traders follow. No, it is not perfect in it's calls.
Rhetorically, what stockmarket timing tool is? However, it is better to view
the calls as dates to be on the lookout for a potential change in trend, than
as a harbinger of continued market action into the date.
As for the latest projections, Bradley M (the short term indicator) calls
for a turn 10-25 (this Sunday), and maybe the turn occurs Monday, if Friday
proves not to have been the trading day marking a pivot. Bradley 5 (longer
term) shows Wednesday 10-28. To complicate things, Bradley 5 shows a quick
flip-flop for 10-31 and 11-1, (the weekend). So, this coming event may prove
more problematical to discern the probable follow through than usual. How to
position a trade using Bradley going into a Bradley projected pivot? I
maintain one should not, in accord with Terry's view. However, and, taking
into consideration the imperfections of the correlations, the dates can be
used at the moment of occurrence, and past that with more standard indicators.
For non-astrological reasons, it seems 10-22 marked a high pivot in the
sp. We might not know whether Bradley M was three days late in marking a
(high) pivot for a few days, by then Bradley 5 comes into play. On the other
hand, if Friday/Monday marked/marks a low pivot, and the stockmarket rises
into the 10-28 date, consideration of the possibility a sizeable correction
commences there, give or take an orb of a few days, could be in order. As you
might perceive, this view is diametrically opposed to Terry's take on the
direction to expect, pursuant to the Bradley. The proposal being, that
Bradley dates should only be used as a focal point to be on guard for a
possible change in trend.
The most important consideration, as Terry admirably alluded to, is that
a trader's job is to jump on board a move, to let the market tell us which way
it is bound, and, how fast and how far it is likely to go. No signal by
Bradley, nor any other tool, should ever take precedence over this precept.
Best wishes to all,
Rory Lewellen RL2946@xxxxxxx
>
A while ago, several charts were posted with the Bradley and Zain-Bradley
indicators. Does anyone have the latest projections that they would like to
share with the group?
>>
Bradley long term is projecting heavy down into October 28th and a rally
into November 24th. Bradley short term is projecting a top on October 1st
and a bottom on the 23rd. Obviously If you had followed the heavy down into
the 23rd you would have gotten killed. This is why I really do not pay much
attention to "ASTRO" indicators. Learn how to trade your system and stick to
it. In my experience when I stop TELLING THE MARKET WHAT IT WILL DO my
equity rises when I demand that the market act a certain way I get my head
handed to me. Let the market action be your guide. As Joe Ross says in many
of his books "Trade the Truth". The truth being price action and price
action only. What else is there?
In the S&P's if the market overbalances in price and time the last rally I
start looking for support to come in at the 62% retracement level. Many
times if it is a true rally it will stop within 2 ticks of the 62%
retracement and then rally strong. Go back to your charts and see how many
times in the past month the markets held 62% of a overbalance rally in
price, or time, or both. Good trading.
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