|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
This is an excellent summary and prescription for the use of the Bradley
indicator. I agree with all of your very well presented points except
for one: IMHO, it appears that this indicator is surprisingly popular --
there are many instantiations of it other than the Bradley M and Bradley
5. The original paper was very prescriptive and definitive which made it
easy for an individual to create their own version of it.
Ned Markson
cnedgo@xxxxxxxxx
http://www.erols.com/cnedgo
RL2946@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> RealTraders,
>
> In an effort to propose a slightly different slant to Terry's judgment of
> the value of the Bradley indicator, an observation first seems in order. The
> Bradley M suggested Oct. 1 to watch for a change in direction for the
> stockmarket, and the DJIA close as of that date has yet to be exceeded on the
> down side. On the contrary, it marked the beginning of a very healthy rally
> for the DJIA, (basis end of day).
> Terry made a very important observation that we should "trade the truth,"
> and this should be a rallying cry for all here. There is a fundamental
> difference of opinion on how
> these Bradley dates should be viewed, in that the crucial value they provide
> is as markers for a possible change in trend; not a clear indication of the
> direction or magnitude going into the date. Of course, the Bradley should not
> be the sole basis for a trade, either.
> It has been suggested to utilize standard indicators, macd, cci, etc., in
> order to evaluate which way, and when, to go with the trade. Not a preferred
> suggestion, and there is much good to be said about Terry's suggestion to look
> at previous 61.8% retracements of overbalanced moves.
> It is a given, the Bradley has definite limitations. The dates can be
> off 2-4 days from the actual pivot. There is no "logical" reason to expect a
> change in trend; nothing we can hang our hats on. On the other hand, it is a
> tool which few traders follow. No, it is not perfect in it's calls.
> Rhetorically, what stockmarket timing tool is? However, it is better to view
> the calls as dates to be on the lookout for a potential change in trend, than
> as a harbinger of continued market action into the date.
> As for the latest projections, Bradley M (the short term indicator) calls
> for a turn 10-25 (this Sunday), and maybe the turn occurs Monday, if Friday
> proves not to have been the trading day marking a pivot. Bradley 5 (longer
> term) shows Wednesday 10-28. To complicate things, Bradley 5 shows a quick
> flip-flop for 10-31 and 11-1, (the weekend). So, this coming event may prove
> more problematical to discern the probable follow through than usual. How to
> position a trade using Bradley going into a Bradley projected pivot? I
> maintain one should not, in accord with Terry's view. However, and, taking
> into consideration the imperfections of the correlations, the dates can be
> used at the moment of occurrence, and past that with more standard indicators.
> For non-astrological reasons, it seems 10-22 marked a high pivot in the
> sp. We might not know whether Bradley M was three days late in marking a
> (high) pivot for a few days, by then Bradley 5 comes into play. On the other
> hand, if Friday/Monday marked/marks a low pivot, and the stockmarket rises
> into the 10-28 date, consideration of the possibility a sizeable correction
> commences there, give or take an orb of a few days, could be in order. As you
> might perceive, this view is diametrically opposed to Terry's take on the
> direction to expect, pursuant to the Bradley. The proposal being, that
> Bradley dates should only be used as a focal point to be on guard for a
> possible change in trend.
> The most important consideration, as Terry admirably alluded to, is that
> a trader's job is to jump on board a move, to let the market tell us which way
> it is bound, and, how fast and how far it is likely to go. No signal by
> Bradley, nor any other tool, should ever take precedence over this precept.
>
>
>
> Best wishes to all,
>
> Rory Lewellen RL2946@xxxxxxx
>
> >
> A while ago, several charts were posted with the Bradley and Zain-Bradley
> indicators. Does anyone have the latest projections that they would like to
> share with the group?
> >>
> Bradley long term is projecting heavy down into October 28th and a rally
> into November 24th. Bradley short term is projecting a top on October 1st
> and a bottom on the 23rd. Obviously If you had followed the heavy down into
> the 23rd you would have gotten killed. This is why I really do not pay much
> attention to "ASTRO" indicators. Learn how to trade your system and stick to
> it. In my experience when I stop TELLING THE MARKET WHAT IT WILL DO my
> equity rises when I demand that the market act a certain way I get my head
> handed to me. Let the market action be your guide. As Joe Ross says in many
> of his books "Trade the Truth". The truth being price action and price
> action only. What else is there?
>
> In the S&P's if the market overbalances in price and time the last rally I
> start looking for support to come in at the 62% retracement level. Many
> times if it is a true rally it will stop within 2 ticks of the 62%
> retracement and then rally strong. Go back to your charts and see how many
> times in the past month the markets held 62% of a overbalance rally in
> price, or time, or both. Good trading.
|