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In a message dated 9/7/98 12:44:39 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
TickerRLR@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<<
Terry,
I missed some of the discussion concerning your indicator. Where can
I find what I missed? In fact, I would like it all. Is it archived
anywhere?
Cordially,
Randy
<
Randy and others,
This was posted 8/26
PS I have attached the latest OEX chart. Not too surprised the rally did not
hold yesterday as we had a confluence of trend lines and x-bar channels. In
addition the linslope indicators showed the internal strength of the rally is
fading.
I'm not in the market crash camp but I would expect at least a retest of
recent lows.
>>
So we called the direction but not the magnitude. One out of two in this case
would have been profitable.
I do not have my original posts that describe the indicators-possibly some
other RT's can provide them to you.
I have attached the latest chart and would provide the following comments.
The original discussion that initiated my original posts was concerning
leading Vs lagging indicators.
It was generally agreed that most price driven indicators are typically
lagging and are best used to identify the primary trend and then act
accordingly. That is the primary function of the x-bar channel indicators.
The second element of that discussion concerned leading indicators and the
general consensus that typically data that is not directly derived from price
are best used as leading indicators. Examples might be employment rate,
inflation rate, bullish sentiment, etc., that will in time have a significant
impact on market direction.
The Linslope2 indicator was presented as an example of an indicator based on
price that could turn in direction prior to price and act as a "price" driven
leading indicator.
I also suggested to be very careful with this indicator as it could create
false signals if not properly interpreted and was best used when extreme
readings and or classic divergence signals were present.
Both the 10 and 13 day indicator are showing extreme oversold levels and have
began to turn up, I believe due to the negative magnitude of both these
indicators that we have a valid "Oversold" reading.
On the chart I have placed the Fib retracement tool to show how far prices
might bounce in the near term from this oversold condition. I am expecting a
50% retracement to the 500/505 area on the OEX and would expect us to get
there very quickly within the next 3 to 5 trading days. This would be a
countertrend rally as the X-bar channels are still classified as bearish.
Think there is enough upside potential to trade the Countertrend rally, but
will do so with caution and tight stops.
Good luck to all trading next week
Terry Quinn
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