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Perry wrote:
>I am an astronomer (Ph.D..). I can tell you there is virtually no
PHYSICAL
>relation between planetary motion, etc. and human behavior.
I must agree, as I have not been hit on the head with a physical
planet lately. <g> However, one does not accomplish anything in the
markets or life by being "told" by an "expert". One does so by
objectively searching and testing, and becoming one's own expert. Your
Ph.D. designation, with all due respect, indicates the acceptance of a
collection of beliefs. The major advances in astronomy and human
understanding in general were made by those who discarded the beliefs of
the majority. Your reply was well thought out, and I am not attempting
to put you in either camp, merely suggesting that RT'ers decide for
themselves on their own standard of objective proof.
Having said that,
>I add that these same aspects can influence peoples BELIEFS and thus
>influence their behavior. Many people read the horoscope in the
newspaper
>every morning, and act accordingly. Is it the material in the
horoscope, or
>the belief of the person that affects behavior? In the market, does it
>matter? As long as a large number of people believe it's true, it
becomes
>so. Remember, the markets have much more to do with psychology than
with
>physical science. (The only slight exception to all this may be in the
>agricultural futures markets where there may be a seasonal relationship
>between sunspot cycles and severity of seasons.)
We have a chicken and egg scenario that only survives if one has
predecided that the astrological elements cannot be causative.You appear
to be making a blanket assertion that psychology and resultant beliefs
do not have an electrochemical root.
I have yet to see the astrologically oriented posters on RT discuss
market turns in relation to Jeanne Dixon's daily horoscope for Aries,
but I understand your point. Perception = reality. Nothing is 100%
reliable, but if enough traders are considering something, we should be
aware of it too. For clarification, I don't read my horoscope. Astrology
means something entirely different to me.
Isn't EVERYTHING we do "simply psychology"?
Why is it that astrological or astronomical cycles can be tracked
and traced in biological or geological bodies that have little or no
brains? Are we immune to the forces that mold the world around us? If
you have Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Murphy, turn
to page 419. There is a chart showing the occurrence of 18.2 year cycles
in everything from the flooding of the Nile, marraiges, stock prices,
construction, java tree rings, and several more items, from 1880 to
1980, some from 1514. Isn't it interesting that the Saros cycle of lunar
and solar eclipses is 18 years, 11 days? And who says we should be
looking for correlation in SOLAR years, or linear correlation anyway?
Just trying to provoke more thought in this area.
Good Trades to You,
Darrin
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