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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
7 / 27 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 7/20 through 7/26 on our web site.
Number of participants: 431
30 day outlook:
23 % bullish, 52% last week
45 % bearish, 24% last week
32 % neutral, 24% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 8/1: 9041 (it was 9224
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
What a difference a week makes. Bullish sentiment plummeted 29% last week
to 23%. Bearish sentiment rose from 24% to 45%. Neutral sentiment jumped to
32%. With the DJIA down 400+ points for the week, we would expect a drop in
bullishness, and this weeks 23% reading is the lowest we have seen in 60+
weeks of sentiment data. However, there does seem to be some reluctance by
the bulls to throw in the towel, as many of those bulls moved to the
neutral camp. Bearish sentiment is at 45%, which is high but certainly not
the highest we have seen. So it looks like some type of a bounce is due,
but we would like to see some higher bearish readings before really getting
aggressive on the long side.
Finally, with a neutral reading of 32% we would expect last week's
volatility to continue. High neutral readings (above 30%) seem to correlate
to impending volatility.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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