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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
9 / 13 / 98
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The
survey was taken from 9/7 through 9/13 on our web site.
Number of participants: 448
30 day outlook:
17% bullish, 20% last week
65% bearish, 65% last week
19% neutral, 15% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 9/18: 7591 (it was 7502
last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm>
Sentiment has been very bearish for eight weeks now. Last weeks 113 point
gain in the DJIA was not enough to move any of those bears into the bullish
camp. In fact, while bearish sentiment stayed even at 65%, bullish
sentiment dropped 3% to 17%. This type of bearish sentiment should add fuel
to the fire when the market does start to rally (and it eventually will!).
So we have:
1. an extreme bearish reading
2. increasing bearishness (or at least a drop in bullishness)
3. a 113 point gain in the DJIA
That is the type of setup we normally look for to have us starting to feel
bullish. But this has been a market of extremes lately, so we plan on being
careful.
To try this week's contest, stop by: http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
More sentiment data is at: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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http://www.lowrisk.com
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