|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I can't wait til the crash is over, my S&P shorts have made me rich, and
Alan Greenspan writes his book. That'll be a page turner. AG's comments on
the inevitability of mkt downturns focuses on the constancy of Human
Nature, not on the existence of JIT, IT or any other whiz-bang "New
Paradigm" features of the modern marketplace. As an aside, does anyone
remember the origin of the phrase "New Paradigm"? As I recall, I first
heard the term uttered by environmentalists, as in: "a New Paradigm of
sustainable development". It seems to me that environmentalists are in a
propaganda war (which they are losing badly) and they don't even realize
it. Their effective slogan was stolen, its meaning cynically twisted, and
turned, by Mutual Fund "pushers" into the most effective sales pitch ever
devised. The first time I ever heard "New Paradigm" applied to mkts, was by
none other than Bill Clinton, Fidelity's No.1 salesman. (It's the economy,
stupid!).
I can't wait to hear the "inside story" from AG as to why he didn't (or
couldn't) raise rates back in the days of "irrational exuberance". If he
had, we wouldn't be talking about a crash now.
Now I'm no expert in economics, (in fact, I'm an Engineering Technologist,
but the fact that I, along with "cab drivers and hairdressers" have taken
an interest in the stock mkt at all, should be taken as yet another sign of
a mkt top!) but I have heard it said that the demand for equities can be
characterized as being "...one mile long, one mile wide, but only half an
inch deep...", which I take to mean that the flood of liquidity which is
the most dramatic aspect of this Bull mkt, can turn on a dime and head for
the exits at a moment's notice. Track inflows to the Mutual Funds and you
will see they're dwindling, although there may well be another rally or two
left in this Bull.
Sorry, Bruce, but I think I'll go with stodgy old Greenspan on this one,
especially since the average Bull was wont to have us believe that the
"Asian Contagion" was over months ago, before it had even begun to work
it's way through the import/export cycle! Now that kind of obvious Bull
activates my BS detection system. (What other lies are they telling us!).
The "New Paradigm" as it applies to mkts is nothing more than the Jungian
"ascension archetype". That's the component of the human "collective
un-concious" that makes us all dream of effortless flight, to a magical
land "over the rainbow", to a life of wealth and ease. Same shit, different
decade. People will always fall for that one, and that's what AG was
referring to when he said: "Human Nature being what it is, market downturns
will occur again and again...".
IMHO, the argument about the existence of a "New Paradigm" is over! When
Greenspan speaks, you'd do well to listen!
John Stevenson
Ottawa, Canada
|