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Here's a little brain twister for the technically minded....
I've basically given up on the "Holy Grail" idea of a universal
method and/or system that trades all markets, all the time,
etc..., etc.., etc....
"Picking the Highs and Picking the Lows Every Time! 1000% ROI
Guaranteed!!!!"
The best I can hope for is to trade a market with my
method/system when they're both in sync, and "hot", and stop
trading as soon as the system starts to "cool down". Why waste
good money on a "draw-down" that goes no-where for weeks or even
months?
What I have settled for is a kind of kludgey "curve fitting"
process which is to only trade a market when both the market the
system are in sync and trading is "hot".
I've been doing some comparative analysis on which markets trade
best with my system and when.
Sorry gang! After six months of this kind of research I have come
to the conclusion that there is no predictable pattern or
seasonality upon which you can sanely risk your money. The market
is to all intents and purposes a Random Event, and until we
eventually acquire say 10,000 years of Trading Data, no-one will
be able to reliably perceive or define any recognizable
repetitive patterns. It's still a 50/50 coin-toss.
I have actually found that the TS4 System Equity Indicators are
reasonably accurate enough to basically assess how my system is
doing with a particular market to give me enough of an idea
whether the market is running totally against my system or
running totally with it.
It's not perfect, and I admit its still a Kludge, but Paper
Trading and Forward Testing, are definitely the only reliable
methods I've come across to test a market to pick the right time
to take a "real position" in a market with real $$$$.
I still suspect that the "secret of my success" has more to do
with proper risk management than anything else.
Past activity is still no real indicator or predictor of future
performance, and I accept that trading commodities is riskier
than Black-Jack, or Bungee Jumping....but....
Here's something I've noticed that I want to put out there for
discussion. My system seems to trade Slow and Not-So-liquid
markets more profitably than "Liquid" markets. I doubt there is a
any real way to determine why that is so, it just seems to be
working out that way.
So Here's my question:
What is the down-side of trading slow or not-so-liquid markets,
now I don't mean I want to trade totally dead markets but say,
for instance:
Trading October Cotton which seems a little slower and less
liquid than December Cotton.
For some reason I'm getting better profit/loss & risk of ruin
ratios with October than I am with December. I have also noticed
this in other markets that I've analyzed.
I had a kind of totally unsubstantiated "hunch" that a slow or
not-so-liquid market would be more conducive to "Bad-Fills", but
my personal experience suggests that Bad-Fills have more to do
with Lazy, Incompetent, Corrupt, Greedy Floor-Brokers, than
anything else.
I'd like to hear your comments.
Tony
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