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Enough all ready !!!!!!
I think we all know what Walk Forward means.
If you don't, then you should not be trading with a system.
Id like to thank Bill for trying to do something new.
It really makes me laugh when someone is doing something for FREE like
posting there systems signals in real time. Then people challenge him for
some stupid reason. I asked for all of your help on "The Worst Stock
Trading system" and received NO help what so ever!!!!
I makes me wonder why I stay on this list.
Another example of what I am complaining about, is the discussion about the
amount of time a person works at trading . Some of the post stated that if
you work for many hours then you will be successful. Well here is the
answer. If you work for 3.34543 hours then you will be successful. Any less
than that and you will fail. Any more than that and your draw downs will
suffer.
Trust me I optimized this on tradstation. Oh by the way I think I over
optimized it. Maybe we should have 27 post about my optimizing of the time
it takes to analyze each trade.
Lets all get REAL. Lets post stuff that will really help each other. Trust
me if you have a good trading idea and you let others in on your big secret
it wont hurt your trading.
Rob
At 12:13 PM 7/8/98 -0500, you wrote:
>Paul,
>Thanks! That is exactly what I am doing on my web site. I am making the
>signals ( entries, stops, etc ) all know on my website the day before the
>are needed. That's about as close to real trading as I can get on such a
>site ( that I know of any way ). Thanks again for your comments.
>
>All the Best!
>Bill Shumake
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Paul Brittian <tradeblt@xxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, July 07, 1998 10:53 PM
>Subject: Re: Walk-forward. What is it.
>
>
>>Gentlemen,
>>The only way a "walk forward" system has any validity is if all the
>>market entry signals as well as the stop losses are posted and published
>>before entering the market. This method is far more real than the CFTC
>>and NFA required VAMI or CTA diaclosure.
>>Paul Brittain
>>http://www.tradeblt.com
>>
>>bshumake wrote:
>>>
>>> To All RealTraders:
>>>
>>> I have apparently misused the term walk-forward testing, when I should
>have
>>> said "paper trade" or "simulated trading." All my we site is doing is
>>> taking a purely mechanical trading system that I developed and is now
>"paper
>>> trading" the signals generated by it for all to see. The system is not
>>> being change or optimized in any way. Please note that I have NOT used
>>> optimization in the development of this system. So I guess I am not
>>> "walk-forward" testing this system, I am just hypothetically trading the
>>> signals it generates to see if it makes money and inviting everyone to
>>> watch. The system lives or dies by it's own merits, but I am not trying
>to
>>> optimize it. Just paper trading to see if it makes money. Sorry for the
>>> misused term, I did not mean to cause such confusion. Now...let's see
>what
>>> happens with these paper trades.
>>>
>>> All the Best !
>>> Bill Shumake
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Bill Bancroft <bancroft@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> Date: Tuesday, July 07, 1998 4:02 PM
>>> Subject: Re: Walk-forward. What is it.
>>>
>>> >Walk-forward testing is where one optimizes a system over the most
>recent
>>> >time-period and then uses the parameters generated by the optimization
>for
>>> >the next time period. For example, consider a simple moving average
>>> >crossover system. It buys when the price is above the average, and
>sells
>>> >when price is below the average. Let's say we want to use walk-forward
>>> >testing to arrive at the length of the average. We would take the last
>>> >year's of data and optimize to find out what moving average length was
>the
>>> >most profitable. We would then trade that moving average for this
>coming
>>> >year. At the end of this year (and every future year), we would repeat
>>> this
>>> >process. So we could be trading a 10-day average in 1998, but in 1999,
>we
>>> >could be trading a 20 day average.
>>> >
>>> >Regards,
>>> >
>>> >Bill Bancroft
>>> >
>>> >BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>>> >
>>> >> I have never understood this walk forward stuff and a quick search of
>the
>>> >> web turned up nothing. Would anyone care to elaborate.
>>> >>
>>> >> Brent
>>> >>
>>> >> > Walk forward is a hoax and a sad one at that. Walk forward means to
>>> >> reoptimize the system on new
>>> >> > data as the new data is available.
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>
>
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