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Hi from Moscow, Russia.
Bob Fulks wrote:
> At 8:58 AM -0500 3/22/98, A.J. Carisse wrote:
..................
>
>
> The problem with most programmed trading systems designed by individuals is
> that they are programmed to handle only a small number of cases, "normal
> situations", requiring you to break in and use your judgement frequently
> when the market stops being "normal". The good ones have more and more
> complex code to handle more and more of the special cases.
>
> Bob Fulks
It's not a fact.
1. I am a mathematician, but I like a technical analysis.
Because it is a method of analysis derived by functions.
Year ago we carryed out a test some software.
We use the stock market' data window from 09/01/95 to 01/05/97.
We have decided this problem by means of following systems and methods:
Tech. Analisis - "Windows on WallStreet" and "MetaStock for Windows".
Decision trees - "SIPINA",
Genetic algoritms - "GeneHunter",
Neuro networks- "OWL" and "NeuroShell",
Case based reasoning - "Pattern Recognition Workbench",
Non linear regression - "Mathematica for Windows".
Only two methods have ensured significant results on real market data:
case based reasoning and tech. analisis.
2. IMHO trading - it's not a game/ And we are dealers, not players.
3. We only -
-a) Enter into the market
-b) Exit from.
We separate indicators by three groups:
-a) "What are the market"(market power) - like MACD, Smoothed RSI or
Force.
-b) "What to do" - divergency convergency.
-c) "When to do" - usually some classical and custom oscillators and
stat. methods.
And therefore we not forecast market but find signals (or rules) to ENTER and
EXIT.
"Enter" signals(rules) can be different "Exit" signals. "Stop price" is an
"Exit" signal also.
And Fibonacci helps us understand "targets" of trend (if it is present).
If signals from one group contradicts each other - we are nothing to do.
If signals from different groups contradicts each other - we use our rules
(for example Elder's "triple screen").
4. What we try to forecast.
Power of market only.
We come in expanding market to buy and leave (or short sale),
if decide that market is not so.
---------
Dear Bob. Sorry I don't know what it is "normal situations". It is like girl
losing virginity. It may be normal to me but ubnormal to her mother... :-)
Sorry for my bad English. Successes,
Aleks.
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UIN: 303275
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