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Hi Roy,
Interest rates generally seem very hard to get a handle on these days as 1) the
short term rates have been in a very narrow range for the longest period of time
I can find in my history back to 40's and 2) the long term rates have been
declining for 15+ years and momentum has declined significantly. My long and
short rate projections for next couple of years both show significant declines:
under 4% on long bond and around 2% on bills - naturally all bets are off if we
take out any significant pivot highs. My rate projections seem to be supported
by independent projections on currencies of 160 yen and 200 mark. In the shorter
term, the utilities (which failed to retrace even .38 of last run) seem to offer
some support to the idea that the current rise in rates will be short-lived.
As I remember you projected a turn in stocks around the first week of March and
that seems to be working out. My price projections based upon the Oct-Dec-Jan
pivots have been achieved with exception of SP which missed by a couple of
points. Time and price appear right for a correction to the runup since Jan. I
do think that the retracements in the Dow and the S&P will be limited to .38
which would hold the decline to the breakout levels. My expectation for a
moderate, rather than a deep, retracement of the last rally is based upon the
power and breadth of the rally.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Roy A. Fellars <fellars@xxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 4:07 AM
Subject: Re: REALTRADERS digest 714
>FWIW on bonds. The wave/time stuff I do seems to suggest that the current
decline is coming to an
>end and that a rally may occur which peaks at the end of this month. As has
been happening all year,
>this rally in bonds would be accompanied by a decline in the stock market
perhaps to 7503 intraday on
>the DJIA. If this occurs, there is a strong argument that this will be an
important peak in bond prices as
>Spiral Calendar connections can be made between a peak at the end of March, the
peak in April, 1986,
>and the peak in October, 1993 through a couple of Winter Solstice Full Moons
which are known foci.
>And, a new moon occurs right in time zone and major market highs have a strong
correlation with new
>moons.
>
>Yours to better discussions...
>
>RAF
>
>
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