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On Thu, 5 Mar 1998 10:06:00 -0700, Earl Adamy wrote:
>My long and
>short rate projections for next couple of years both show significant declines:
>under 4% on long bond and around 2% on bills - naturally all bets are off if we
>take out any significant pivot highs.
Hi Earl:
Well, I stuck my foot in my mouth again, so it is back where it belongs.<g> I made a bit of a mistake in
that message as to timing and I thought I had better clarify it. While there is an interesting juncture in
the bonds due at the end of March/early April, there seems to be a much more interesting point from a
longer term perspective due at the end of May. It is that point that connects through two known Spiral
calendar foci to the two previous major tops in Bonds in the past 12 years and it too is very close to the
new moon. I don't share your opinion here that rates are going to decline significantly from this point
and would look, from an EW perspective only, for a 'B' wave high in some sort of very large corrective
sequence in progress from the 10/15/93 bond high. The 'C' wave of that correction could produce a low
below that seen in late 1994. The 'B' wave interpretation would not be consistent with startling new
highs in bonds on this run.
> As I remember you projected a turn in stocks around the first week of March and
> that seems to be working out. My price projections based upon the Oct-Dec-Jan
> pivots have been achieved with exception of SP which missed by a couple of
> points.
I'm not sure the highs are in at the present time so I would support your S&P target being achieved in
the next couple of days. I could live with what we've seen but would prefer something up around 8620
intraday which is the 1.236 projection point of the B wave as measured by the length of A. If that
happens that would also suggest that Intermediate 4, the correction in progress in the DJIA from 8/7/97,
might work out to be a triangle in which the next decline, due to bottom at the end of March, would be
the C wave. In that case I would look for the next low to be below the 7503 end of wave target. It
would also mean that things would have to happen fast to finish the bull market by mid-July 98. The
end of the E wave of the triangle would still be 7503 but move the date forward to the end of May for
its completion. If that happens, that means that Intermediate 5 only has 51 days to complete and must
run 2300 DJIA points during that time.
When I think about this, I hark back to a conversation that I had with a fellow trader shortly after the
1987 crash. He said that he would know when the bull market that was starting now would end
because we would see the exact opposite event to what we had just witnessed. Well, if this works out,
that scenario would sure be set up here. And, of further interest, the distance between the end of May
and the start of the crash in 1987 (August 25th) is F22 on the Spiral Calendar. If there is going to be a
mirror image here, we sure have set it up....
RAF
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