|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 13:28:57 EST, Frwheldrv wrote:
>
>I posted that I had bought a may silver put on 2-17 looking for a bottom of a
>39 week cycle due in may. I did not wait it out and took a 130% profit on the
>38 % retracement completed on 2-25 @6057- I still am looking for lower silver
>into may due to cycles and my 1%kagi chart is still bearish. I do not have a
>silver position at this time.
Eric:
Nice trade. I've thought a bit about what may happen in silver over the next couple of months and what
is driving my ideas is the similarity of silver to what happened in gold a couple of years ago. My next
time point of significance is in June which is exactly what it was like when gold made its high a couple of
years ago. What happened then was the XAU held up in the top area until early June without making a
new high and then they took out both the stocks and the metal and shot 'em.<g>
The analysis that I arrived at from a longer term perspective in silver suggests that the 1980's bear
market is still the name of the game but this may be the last run for the bears. One more new low
below $3.50 whenever it occurs ought to finish the structure. How long that takes is open to question.
>From a much longer perspective the only significant time point that I can see in the precious metals is in
March, 2002. That particular point is probably a low if it is of significance. I sure would hate to see the
metals continue to drift down for the next four years...
> -there is a roughly 9.6 month cycle due for a high in july/aug
Can you show me some more detail on the history of this cycle?
RAF
|