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In a message dated 98-03-05 14:08:24 EST, fellars@xxxxxxx writes:
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On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 13:28:57 EST, Frwheldrv wrote:
>
>I posted that I had bought a may silver put on 2-17 looking for a bottom of
a
>39 week cycle due in may. I did not wait it out and took a 130% profit on
the
>38 % retracement completed on 2-25 @6057- I still am looking for lower
silver
>into may due to cycles and my 1%kagi chart is still bearish. I do not have a
>silver position at this time.
Eric:
Nice trade. I've thought a bit about what may happen in silver over the next
couple of months and what
is driving my ideas is the similarity of silver to what happened in gold a
couple of years ago. My next
time point of significance is in June which is exactly what it was like when
gold made its high a couple of
years ago. What happened then was the XAU held up in the top area until
early June without making a
new high and then they took out both the stocks and the metal and shot
'em.<g>
The analysis that I arrived at from a longer term perspective in silver
suggests that the 1980's bear
market is still the name of the game but this may be the last run for the
bears. One more new low
below $3.50 whenever it occurs ought to finish the structure. How long that
takes is open to question.
From a much longer perspective the only significant time point that I can see
in the precious metals is in
March, 2002. That particular point is probably a low if it is of
significance. I sure would hate to see the
metals continue to drift down for the next four years...
> -there is a roughly 9.6 month cycle due for a high in july/aug
Can you show me some more detail on the history of this cycle?
RAF
>>
RAF I had to look a few minutes to remember that I was speaking of the crude
outlook on the 9.6 mo. I pull charts off free internet sites and analyse by
hand so unfortunately I have nothing to attach. If you send me a fax # I will
Fax a monthly chart, but roughly crude has been following this cycle nicely
and if you put up a monthly chart starting at least as far back as 1994 thru
1998 you will see clear highs in June '94, April'95, Mar '96, Dec. '96 and
Sept. 97 averaging roughly 9.6 mo.
Happy cycle hunting
Eric
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