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>Hi John, Rtrs,
>Seasonal trends with 80% chance are fine, but the size of the average move
>is important. Only the major seasonal trends ocurring not more than few
>times a year could be used. That brings us to the other premise that when
>market moves strongly against a major seasonal trend, the moves tend to be
>big and very profitable because there are strong fundamental reasons for it.
>For example, Heating Oil instead of moving up, moved down because of the
>glut in oil supply in January. etc. so if you got a signal to go short, do
>you take it or not? At present I am getting buy signals in crude oil,
>heating oil, gasoline. I am going to take the buy on gasoline along with
>others if my entry criteria is met even though this is not the driving
>season.
Ashif,
I agree with your statements concerning contra-seasonal trades. In his book
Joe Ross states that some of the best trades are contra-seasonal. My
problem is I haven't come up with a signal that says take this trade
contra-seasonaly. I have seen such trades setting up and have understood
the fundamentals behind them but haven't been able to pull the trigger. I'm
afraid of adding too much subjectivity to a system that is working for me.
Would like any ideas on how to resolve this.
Rod Smith
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