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At 04:53 PM 2/3/98 -0900, you wrote
>
>I agree with your statements concerning contra-seasonal trades. In his book
>Joe Ross states that some of the best trades are contra-seasonal. My
>problem is I haven't come up with a signal that says take this trade
>contra-seasonaly. I have seen such trades setting up and have understood
>the fundamentals behind them but haven't been able to pull the trigger. I'm
>afraid of adding too much subjectivity to a system that is working for me.
>Would like any ideas on how to resolve this.
>
>Rod Smith
>
>
>Hi Rod, Rtrs,
My suggestion is not to change the system which is working for you, but to
make another system only for contra-seasonal trades -the same technical
could work- use separate account, strict money mngt., undertrade initially
till you build up confidence or you could use options only at or below fair
value to take such trades. Once you get a sample size of 30 trades that
gives you a normal distribution with losing and winning streaks- then look
at the profit and drawdown and see if it is worthwhile. I find it preferable
not to change a profitable system. Hope this helps,
Happy Trading,
Asif
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