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RT's:
Thank you Brent Ashton for sharing your experiences and opinions about
Cycles.
How to use Cycles as a trading tool is an issue that has bothered me for a
long
time. Many years ago I subscribed to Walter Bressert's newsletter along
with
trying to educate myself by reading about Cycles as an indicator. My
experience
was that his projections were about as accurate as flipping a coin. Well,
maybe
he was right over 50% of the time but the win percentage was not to my
liking if
similiar results could be duplicated by chance alone. Wern't we taught
that cycles
were sometimes "early"; and at other times "late"? How were we to know if
the
cycle would be early or late? Sometimes cycles also "stretch out" in time.
To
wit Richard Mogey's ammusing comment that he picked five of the last two
bottoms in the
Gold market. Arent' we told that they can't be used alone that we also
need to
confirm them with traditional tools of technical analysis? Well, if all
this is true, why
even look at Cycles if they cannot be used as an effective timing tool?
Doesn't
their use convulute and complicate the issues we are trying to resolve?
Perhaps
my intellectual capabilities are limited in that I do not have the
knowledge or under-
standing necessary to use Cycle work.
Re Walter Bressert's "Cycle Trader", my understanding is that there are
very, very
few who are able to use it successfully. Again, is it the tool or the
user? Brent
Ashton mentioned Ruggerio's study of cycles using MESA. I read some of
these
articles in FUTURES magazine and noted, again, that the win percentage
leaves a
lot to be desired.
I know that part of the problem is the fact that cycles replicate not
duplicate and
there is no fixed perodicity. And this is where planetary cycles enter the
mix for
their cycles are not dependent on fixed periodicity. There is also the
probability
that many of these are coincidences with market turning points as opposed
to
being causal. After all, if we have enough history we can go back and find
some
indicator which appears causal; like the SuperBowl Indicator.
The point of all this is that I would like someone to correct my thinking.
Please
may I hear from someone who can set me straight? What is it here that I'm
not
seeing about the correct use of Cycles as a trading tool?
Charles.
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