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charles meyer wrote:
>
>
>
> RT's:
>
> Thank you Brent Ashton for sharing your experiences and opinions about
> Cycles.
> How to use Cycles as a trading tool is an issue that has bothered me for a
> long
> time. Many years ago I subscribed to Walter Bressert's newsletter along
> with
> trying to educate myself by reading about Cycles as an indicator. My
> experience
> was that his projections were about as accurate as flipping a coin. Well,
> maybe
> he was right over 50% of the time but the win percentage was not to my
> liking if
> similiar results could be duplicated by chance alone. Wern't we taught
> that cycles
> were sometimes "early"; and at other times "late"? How were we to know if
> the
> cycle would be early or late? Sometimes cycles also "stretch out" in time.
> To
> wit Richard Mogey's ammusing comment that he picked five of the last two
> bottoms in the
> Gold market. Arent' we told that they can't be used alone that we also
> need to
> confirm them with traditional tools of technical analysis? Well, if all
> this is true, why
> even look at Cycles if they cannot be used as an effective timing tool?
> Doesn't
> their use convulute and complicate the issues we are trying to resolve?
> Perhaps
> my intellectual capabilities are limited in that I do not have the
> knowledge or under-
> standing necessary to use Cycle work.
>
> Re Walter Bressert's "Cycle Trader", my understanding is that there are
> very, very
> few who are able to use it successfully. Again, is it the tool or the
> user? Brent
> Ashton mentioned Ruggerio's study of cycles using MESA. I read some of
> these
> articles in FUTURES magazine and noted, again, that the win percentage
> leaves a
> lot to be desired.
>
> I know that part of the problem is the fact that cycles replicate not
> duplicate and
> there is no fixed perodicity. And this is where planetary cycles enter the
> mix for
> their cycles are not dependent on fixed periodicity. There is also the
> probability
> that many of these are coincidences with market turning points as opposed
> to
> being causal. After all, if we have enough history we can go back and find
> some
> indicator which appears causal; like the SuperBowl Indicator.
>
> The point of all this is that I would like someone to correct my thinking.
> Please
> may I hear from someone who can set me straight? What is it here that I'm
> not
> seeing about the correct use of Cycles as a trading tool?
>
> Charles.
Maybe there are no cycles Charles. Maybe it looks like cycles, has the
taste of cycles, but they're are not cycles...
Why stick to a belief system if it is not useful for you? Just change
perspective, and you'll see other ways, besides cycles.
Cheers
Gwenn
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